The Republican Party wins the NC-11 US House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
North Carolina's 11th congressional district is contested in the 2026 midterms. Resolves to the party affiliation of the winning candidate.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel treats this as close to settled: the median is 92%.
They broadly agree, 9 points between Qwen at 97% and Gemini at 88%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 14%, so the models are 78 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 4 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +78 pts
- Moved this week
- -1 pts
- Volume
- $171K
The models are sharply more confident than traders risking real money: 92% against 14%.
What each one said
-
QwenAlibaba
NC-11 is a deep-red western NC district held by Republican Chuck Edwards; flipping it would require a historic wave.
- NC-11 has a Cook PVI around R+15 and Edwards won by double digits in both 2022 and 2024, making it one of the safest GOP seats in the state.
- No credible Democratic challenger has emerged or fundraising surge suggests a competitive race; even in 2018's blue wave, this district stayed Republican.
- Would revise down only if Edwards withdrew and a well-funded Democrat entered with polling showing single-digit margin, which has not materialized.
97% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This is a safe Republican seat in a red district with an incumbent; the only question is margin, not party.
- NC-11 is a deep-red Appalachian district; Trump won it by roughly 20 points in 2024 and it has not elected a Democrat since 2010.
- The 2026 race features Republican incumbent Chuck Edwards against Democrat Christian Rangel; no credible nonpartisan or Democratic internal poll has shown this seat…
- The only development that would change my mind is a credible poll showing the Democrat within single digits or a scandal-driven Edwards collapse in the final days.
96% -
ClaudeAnthropic
NC-11 is a heavily Republican western NC district (Chuck Edwards' seat), very safe in a normal midterm environment.
- NC-11 has a Cook PVI around R+16-17, making it one of the safer GOP seats nationally.
- Incumbent Chuck Edwards has won comfortably since 2022 and no competitive primary or redistricting upheaval is reported here.
- Only a major national wave plus a scandal-driven collapse would flip this district, which is unlikely given its partisan lean.
92% -
GrokxAI
Incumbent Republican in an R+8 western-NC seat four days from Election Day.
- Chuck Edwards holds the seat; Cook PVI and 2024 Trump margin make a flip require a 15-pt+ swing that has not appeared in late polling.
- House incumbents in R+8 districts lose <8% of the time even in midterm waves; 2018 left NC-11 Republican.
- Only a last-minute scandal or certified vote-share collapse below 48% would reverse this; neither is indicated.
92% -
GPTOpenAI
NC-11’s Republican lean and incumbent advantage make a Democratic upset in four days a high bar.
- The winner will be determined on November 3, with certification/calls shortly afterward; no further candidate-selection hurdle remains.
- NC-11 has been reliably Republican in recent House races, and western North Carolina’s partisan baseline strongly favors the GOP.
- I would cut this sharply only on credible late evidence of an incumbent scandal, withdrawal, or a Democratic polling lead near Election Day.
91% -
GeminiGoogle
The district's conservative mountain counties consistently outvote progressive Asheville, maintaining a reliable Republican baseline.
- Drawn by the state legislature with an R+8 partisan lean, NC-11 withstands typical midterm swings absent a massive national wave.
- Incumbent Chuck Edwards or a generic Republican holds a structural 7-to-12 point advantage across western North Carolina counties.
- Only an extraordinary Democratic turnout surge in Buncombe County alongside severe rural depressed turnout could flip this seat.
88%
6 of 6 models answered · 9 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Question sourced from Polymarket on 30 Oct 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.