Russia and Ukraine reach an energy ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026.
Both nations have heavily targeted energy infrastructure. Resolves if a mutual agreement to suspend strikes on specified energy targets is announced by the deadline.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 8%.
They broadly agree, 16 points between GPT at 18% and Gemini at 2%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 16%, so the models are 8 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 30 Nov 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -8 pts
- Volume
- $74K
The models are slightly less confident than traders risking real money: 8% against 16%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
This hinges on whether third-party diplomacy can turn mutual winter vulnerability into a public, defined reciprocal pledge within 18 days.
- Moscow and Kyiv would both need to authorize and announce category-specific restraints by November 30, likely via U.S., Turkish, or Gulf mediation.
- Past partial ceasefire talks have repeatedly failed to produce durable announced terms, and each side treats energy strikes as leverage.
- A verified pre-November 20 negotiating channel tied to winter grid risks or Black Sea/export arrangements would sharply raise the odds.
18% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether broader US-brokered peace talks produce even a narrow mutual energy strike pause before Nov 30, 2026.
- Past 2025 energy truce attempts (Mar 2025) collapsed within days amid mutual accusations of violations.
- Only 18 days remain in the window, and no current reporting indicates imminent agreement on even a limited energy ceasefire.
- A breakthrough in the broader US-mediated peace process could suddenly produce a partial truce, but talks have repeatedly stalled.
10% -
QwenAlibaba
Eighteen days is too short to formalize a bilateral energy ceasefire absent a pre-negotiated framework already in place.
- No public reporting of a near-complete draft or mediated framework as of mid-November; surprise announcements of this type typically leak days before.
- Even the lowest-bar version (one category, announcement only) requires both Kyiv and Moscow to publicly commit, which demands domestic political cover neither has…
- A last-minute US-brokered deal tied to broader peace talks would be the most plausible path, but that would require a diplomatic breakthrough in under three weeks.
9% -
GrokxAI
Turns on secret talks already being far enough along to announce in 18 days.
- Putin and Zelensky must both publicly commit; no energy-strike halt has been agreed in four years of war.
- Base rate of sudden, un-leaked ceasefires in active conflicts is near zero without prior diplomatic signaling.
- A scheduled US or Turkish-brokered announcement this month would shift odds, but none exists.
7% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
No mutual energy-strike truce has ever held; 18 days is far too short for Moscow and Kyiv to agree terms.
- Both sides must sign off on defined target categories, but talks have stalled since the failed March 2025 partial truce attempts.
- Base rate for any Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in a given 18-day window is near zero; no energy-specific deal has ever been announced.
- A US-brokered push tying sanctions relief to a verified pause is the only plausible trigger, and none is scheduled before November 30.
6% -
GeminiGoogle
With only 18 days left until the deadline, negotiating and formalizing a bilateral energy ceasefire is virtually impossible.
- Resolution date is November 30, 2026, leaving under three weeks with active winter strikes underway and no public momentum.
- Prior Qatar-mediated talks broke down following Ukraine's Kursk incursion and bilateral trust remains near zero.
- An unannounced backchannel agreement brokered via Qatar or Turkey before month-end is the only slim path to resolution.
2%
6 of 6 models answered · 16 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An energy ceasefire refers to a mutually agreed arrangement under which both Russia and Ukraine commit to suspend strikes on at least one specific, defined category of the other country's energy infrastructure (e.g. oil refineries, gas processing plants, power plants, electricity transmission and distribution facilities, oil and gas pipelines, fuel storage facilities, or oil and gas export terminals), regardless of whether the two countries' commitments cover the same category. A category need not cover all such infrastructure in the other country to qualify; a category limited to a defined geographic area will be sufficient. The agreement must be either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A claim by a third party, including the President of the United States, that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to such an arrangement will not qualify without such confirmation. A broa
Question sourced from Polymarket on 12 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.