Senior US and Iranian officials hold another diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026.
Following talks at the UN General Assembly in September 2026, negotiators signaled further contact. Resolves if the two sides conduct another formal senior-level meeting this month.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 50%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 78% and DeepSeek at 22%, 56 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 17%, so the models are 33 points more confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 1 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- +33 pts
- Moved this week
- -7 pts
- Volume
- $393K
The models are sharply more confident than traders risking real money: 50% against 17%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
The public pledge of another near-term session creates a strong 21-day path, unless Iran or Washington suspends engagement.
- Witkoff, Kushner, and Araghchi already met on September 22, so the same senior channel can be reconvened without a new framework.
- Comparable post-UN follow-ups often occur within weeks, but Iran's approval chain and regional escalation can still delay them past November.
- A confirmed Iranian withdrawal, new U.S. sanctions ultimatum, or major Israel-Iran clash would sharply reduce the chance.
78% -
QwenAlibaba
Trump publicly committed to a follow-up meeting and the resolution criteria accepts indirect contact, leaving a wide path to yes.
- Trump explicitly stated another meeting is 'scheduled' on Sept 22, and Witkoff/Kushner engagement signals sustained US political will through November.
- The broad resolution criteria—direct or indirect, any senior-level contact—means even a brief sideline exchange at a multilateral event would qualify.
- Main downside risk is a regional escalation (Israel-Iran strike cycle or proxy crisis) freezing diplomacy, but no such trigger is currently imminent enough to override…
74% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether a scheduled follow-up meeting actually convenes before Nov 30, as Trump signaled in September.
- Trump explicitly said another meeting was scheduled 'in the near future' after the Sept 22 UNGA talks, raising likelihood of follow-through.
- US-Iran contacts have been recurring through indirect channels (Oman, Qatar) over past years, supporting a base rate above average for renewed contact within ~2 months.
- Key risk: regional escalation, domestic Iranian politics, or US policy shifts could delay or cancel talks, and 'indirect' meetings may not clearly meet the senior-level…
62% -
GeminiGoogle
A three-week window is too narrow for high-stakes US-Iran talks unless backchannel Oman arrangements are already finalized.
- Only 21 days remain in November 2026, and senior US-Iranian diplomacy typically requires prolonged intermediary coordination.
- Domestic backlash in Tehran and Trump's unpredictable signaling make formal follow-ups susceptible to last-minute delays.
- A leaked announcement of an Omani or Qatari-hosted track-one session would immediately push these odds above 80%.
38% -
GrokxAI
Whether Witkoff/Kushner and Araghchi lock a follow-up slot in the remaining 21 days.
- Both sides must still authorize and calendar a senior meeting (envoy/FM level) before 30 Nov; none is publicly dated after seven weeks.
- UNGA-side talks historically produce delayed or cancelled sequels more often than not, so this sits below a 50% base.
- A host-country (Oman/Qatar) announcement would lift odds fast; any strike or IAEA crisis would end them.
38% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether Trump's vague 'scheduled soon' claim converts into an actual dated senior meeting before the window closes.
- Trump publicly said another meeting was scheduled soon after the September 22 UNGA Witkoff-Araghchi sit-down, but no date was ever announced.
- Iran's leadership has repeatedly ruled out talks while US sanctions and the UN snapback remain in force, and Khamenei must personally approve any senior contact.
- The 21-day window is short and the base rate for announced-but-unscheduled US-Iran senior meetings materializing within two months is low; a public Trump or Araghchi…
22%
6 of 6 models answered · 56 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presid
Question sourced from Polymarket on 9 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.