SpaceX conducts its 35th ISS commercial resupply launch before November 1, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 81% by 12 Nov 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

81% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-12.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 68% — CRS-35 launch turns on avoiding minor technical, ISS docking port traffic, or weather slips over the remaining 18 days of October. NASA has already scheduled official launch coverage within October 2026, indicating hardware is on site and processing is near nominal. Cargo Dragon missions historically slip past their targeted calendar month about 30% to 35% of the time due to late payload or weather delays. A static fire anomaly or ISS docking port scheduling congestion would quickly push the launch into early November.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 78% — Hinges on whether SpaceX launches CRS-35 within the scheduled October 2026 window without slipping past Oct 31. NASA already announced coverage specifically for an October 2026 launch, indicating a firm near-term schedule as of today's date. SpaceX Cargo Dragon missions have a strong track record of launching within announced windows, though weather/technical scrubs of days to weeks are common. Resolution deadline (Nov 12) gives little buffer if slips occur, but historically most CRS slips are under 2 weeks.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 88% — The scheduled October window is short, but Cargo Dragon missions usually recover quickly from routine slips. NASA has announced coverage for CRS-35 in October, indicating the mission, payload and station integration are already far advanced. Comparable CRS missions commonly launch within their planned month; weather, Falcon 9 issues, or ISS traffic are the main delay risks. A Dragon or Falcon 9 anomaly, or an ISS operational conflict requiring a multiweek stand-down, would materially lower the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 71% — Whether CRS-35 holds its remaining October window amid ISS traffic and weather. SpaceX and NASA must clear vehicle, range and a docking slot in the 18 days left after Oct 13. Once inside T-18 d, ~65 % of recent CRS flights stay in the announced month; Falcon cadence lifts this case a bit. A post-25 Oct scrub or ISS conflict would most likely push it into November.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 88% — Whether Falcon 9 CRS-35 launches in its already-scheduled October window, with weather and range the main slippage risks. NASA and SpaceX have already published an October 2026 target and coverage plan, so hardware, cargo, and range are effectively ready. Falcon 9/Dragon CRS flights have a high on-time rate; recent missions slipped days, not weeks, and the window closes October 31. A launch scrub pushing past October 31 would fail the milestone, but a two-week slip into early November is the realistic worst case.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 84% — Mission is already on the October manifest with NASA coverage announced; only a scrub or technical hold could push it past the 31st. SpaceX CRS missions scheduled for a given month launch within that month roughly 85-90% of the time historically. NASA has publicly announced coverage, indicating the launch date is firm and likely within the next 1-2 weeks from Oct 13. A weather scrub or last-minute Dragon/Capsule anomaly is the main risk; a development that would shift this is a formal postponement announcement.

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