The Academy Awards live broadcast moves primarily to YouTube or another digital streaming platform before 2030.

• G
  GPTOpenAI

  ABC’s current Oscars deal and Disney’s incentive to retain a marquee broadcast make a YouTube-first switch hard before 2030.

  • The Academy must negotiate a new U.S. rights deal; ABC’s announced extension runs through the 2028 ceremony.
  • Major live events are moving toward streaming, but top awards shows still use linear reach, ad sales, and affiliate promotion.
  • A major bid from YouTube, Netflix, or Amazon after the 2028 deal would materially raise the odds.

  openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 12 Oct 2026
  31%
• D
  DeepSeekDeepSeek

  Whether ABC's contract expires without a comparable linear renewal, forcing a digital-first deal.

  • ABC's current deal runs through the 2028 ceremony, so any move requires the Academy to renegotiate or wait out that contract.
  • Oscar linear ratings fell from 43.7M (2014) to 19.5M (2024), but the 2025 show rebounded to ~19.7M and ABC pays roughly $100M+ annually, which streaming can't easily…
  • The 2026 ceremony already streams on Hulu, showing the Academy's preferred path is simulcast/hybrid rather than exclusive digital-first.

  deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 12 Oct 2026
  22%
• G
  GeminiGoogle

  ABC holds rights through 2028, and linear broadcast fees remain too lucrative to abandon entirely for streaming before 2030.

  • ABC's existing contract guarantees linear dominance through the 100th Oscars in 2028, leaving only 2029 for an immediate platform switch.
  • The Academy relies on rights fees (~$100M annually) that streamers, especially ad-driven YouTube, rarely match as exclusive deals.
  • A move like the SAG Awards to Netflix shows precedence, but Disney is more likely to retain rights via an ABC/Disney+ simulcast.

  google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 12 Oct 2026
  18%
• G
  GrokxAI

  ABC/Disney hold Oscars through 2028; a 2029 switch to YouTube/streaming is the only window.

  • Academy-ABC deal runs through the 2028 ceremony, so only the 2029 telecast could move before 2030.
  • No major US awards show has yet licensed its primary live feed away from linear TV; Super Bowl and Grammys remain network.
  • Disney still values the event for ABC ad inventory and brand; a Google bid would have to clear that plus Academy reach concerns.

  x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 12 Oct 2026
  12%
• C
  ClaudeAnthropic

  Hinges on ABC/Disney's exclusive US rights deal, locked through 2028 with renewal talks likely favoring streaming-linear hybrid, not pure YouTube.

  • ABC holds US Oscars rights through 2028 under a long-term Disney deal, leaving limited windows before 2031 for a full platform switch.
  • Academy has historically favored legacy broadcast partners with deep pockets and ceremony production infrastructure over pure digital-native platforms like YouTube.
  • Streaming shift is more likely to mean Disney+/Hulu simulcast alongside ABC rather than Academy licensing primarily to YouTube, which has no awards-show precedent.

  anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 12 Oct 2026
  10%
• Q
  QwenAlibaba

  ABC's contract runs through 2028; the Academy is revenue-maximizing and deeply tied to Disney, making a YouTube leap very unlikely.

  • ABC/Disney holds rights through the 100th ceremony (March 2028); any new deal would start 2029, giving only 1-2 ceremonies in the window.
  • The Academy earned ~$100M+ annually from ABC; YouTube would need to match that plus offer prestige parity, which it hasn't done for any comparable live event.
  • Even if the Academy leaves ABC, Disney+ or another broadcast network is far more likely than YouTube given the institutional relationship and ad-revenue model.

  qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 12 Oct 2026
  9%

6 of 6 models answered · 22 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.