The Bank of Canada keeps interest rates unchanged on October 28, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 68% by 4 Nov 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

68% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-04.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 73% — The Governing Council usually validates clear market expectations for a pause when labour and inflation data cool in tandem. Softening labour prints give the BoC breathing room to hold its policy rate steady rather than resume tightening. Central banks deliver the expected hold over 70% of the time on decision morning absent a pre-meeting communication shock. A surprise 25 bps cut would only materialize if council prioritizes immediate recession avoidance over lingering services inflation.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 58% — Hinges on whether BoC has already cut to a level it judges appropriate before Oct 28, 2026. No direct data on rate path between now and then was given, so default to historical pause frequency at mid-cycle meetings. Soft core inflation and employment point to further easing pressure, slightly favoring a cut over a hold. A clear surprise inflation print or employment shock before the meeting would most change this probability either direction.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — It turns on whether the Bank judges recent soft data sufficient to pause rather than deliver another adjustment. The Governing Council alone decides at its October 28 fixed announcement, leaving no legislative or operational delay. Central banks often hold between moves, and softer core inflation and jobs data raise the pause case above baseline. A material inflation or labor-data surprise, or an urgent financial-stability shock before the decision, would shift the call.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 72% — Today's BoC rate decision after the latest inflation and jobs prints. Governing Council must decide by the 10 a.m. ET announcement whether the overnight rate stays at its current setting. Soft core CPI and employment already published make an immediate cut or hike the minority outcome versus a hold. A hold is the modal late-cycle choice when data are mixed; only a sharper-than-expected statement lean would overturn it.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 72% — This turns on whether the BoC's October 28 decision already landed as a hold, given soft core inflation and employment. The BoC sets the overnight rate at its fixed announcement date; soft core CPI and weak jobs data are the classic triggers for a pause. Base rate: the BoC holds roughly 70-75% of scheduled meetings, and a soft-data backdrop pushes this case above that average. The one thing that would flip this is a surprise upside inflation print or hawkish guidance in the statement itself.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 64% — BoC likely near the floor of its easing cycle; a pause is the modal outcome but a final 25bp cut remains live. After cutting from 5% to roughly 2.25–2.50% through 2024–25, the BoC historically pauses 1–2 meetings before any further move. Soft core inflation argues for more easing, but the BoC typically wants to see cumulative transmission before the last cut. A surprise 25bp cut would most likely follow if October CPI (due mid-month) undershot the 2% target materially.

The Bank of Canada keeps interest rates unchanged on October 28, 2026.

The Bank of Japan leaves its policy rate unchanged at its October 29–30, 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at its October 29, 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged at its October 28, 2026 decision.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises its official cash rate at its 29 October 2026 meeting.