The Bank of England holds the Bank Rate at 3.75% at its policy meeting during the week of September 14–18, 2026.
Markets broadly expected a pause at 3.75% despite hotter-than-expected UK core CPI. The event occurs if the BoE maintains the Bank Rate at 3.75% at Thursday's meeting.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 80%.
They do not agree: Gemini puts it at 88% and Claude at 8%, 80 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
The Bank of England's MPC met on September 16, 2026 (within the week of Sep 14-18) and voted 6-3 to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75%, as confirmed by the Bank of England's official Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, its rate page, and Reuters reporting dated September 17, 2026.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- Interest rates and Bank Rate: our latest decision
- September 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes
- Bank of England shifts tone toward rate hikes as inflation alarm sounds
- Base rate held AGAIN at 3.75% – here's what it means for you
- Bank of England sounds inflation alarm as it holds interest rates
- monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes-september-2026. ...
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Market consensus strongly favors a pause at the current 3.75% rate given inflation persistence.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202688% -
GrokxAI
Markets price a pause despite CPI surprise; BoE rarely defies consensus this close to the meeting.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Market-implied odds favor a hold; only a core CPI shock would force a hike.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
QwenAlibaba
Markets already price a pause; BoE rarely surprises against strong consensus.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202678% -
GPTOpenAI
Market consensus favors a pause, but sticky core inflation leaves meaningful risk of a hike.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202663% -
ClaudeAnthropic
BoE isn't currently at 3.75%; likely rate is different by Sep 2026, making hold implausible
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20268%
6 of 6 models answered · 80 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.