The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate on December 9, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 18% by 26 Jan 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

18% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-01-26.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 18% — The Fed rarely resumes hikes right after pausing unless inflation re-accelerates sharply in two consecutive monthly reports. The FOMC meets Dec 8-9, requiring two hot CPI/PCE prints and strong payrolls in Nov and early Dec to force a hike over a continued hold. Historically, once the Fed enters an extended pause or easing tilt, single-meeting re-hike base rates are under 15%. A core PCE print topping 0.4% month-over-month alongside blowout wage gains before Dec 9 would instantly reverse this stance.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 3% — Fed policy trajectory in 2026 has been toward cuts/pauses, not hikes, making a Dec 9 hike very unlikely. Markets and recent Fed communication through October 2026 have centered on pausing or cutting, not raising rates. A reversal to hiking would require a sudden inflation surge or data shock between now and Dec 9, which isn't signaled currently. Historically the Fed rarely pivots from pause to hike within one meeting cycle absent a clear inflation shock, which keeps the base rate low.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — A December hike requires inflation or labor data to reaccelerate enough to overturn the Fed’s October pause. The FOMC must vote for an increase at its December 8–9 meeting; the decision is published immediately that day. After a pause, back-to-back-meeting hikes are uncommon absent a clear inflation surprise, making the base rate low. November payrolls and October–November CPI/PCE readings would shift this sharply if they show renewed price or wage acceleration.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 17% — Whether Nov data reverse the Oct pause enough for a Dec 9 FOMC majority to hike. FOMC votes Dec 9; only a hot Nov CPI/jobs print (core >0.4 m/m or U-3 drop) would override the just-announced pause. Post-pause same-cycle hikes are rare (~10-15% since 1990s); this sits near that base given the explicit pause. A 50bp-equivalent data surprise or sudden dollar/credit stress would be the main thing that lifts odds above 30.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 6% — A hike needs a data shock between now and December 9; a paused Fed rarely reverses within six weeks. The FOMC just paused in late October, and post-pause reversals inside one meeting interval are historically rare—the 1990s and 2023 pauses held for months. Core PCE and CPI prints land mid-November and early December; only a clear re-acceleration above ~3% core would put a hike back on the table. Powell would need a majority of the 12 voters to flip from hold to hike with no dot-plot signal, which the Committee avoids doing abruptly.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 33% — A single-meeting pause followed by resumption is uncommon; the Fed usually pauses because it's done or nearly done hiking. Historically, when the Fed pauses mid-cycle, it resumes at the very next meeting roughly 30% of the time; most pauses extend or precede cuts. The October pause itself signals the committee wants more data, making a December hike contingent on a sharp upside surprise in November CPI or jobs. A hot November inflation print or labor-market reacceleration would be the single development most likely to push this above 50%.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate on December 9, 2026.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises interest rates this week.

The Bank of Japan leaves its policy rate unchanged at its October 29–30, 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank leaves interest rates unchanged at its October 29, 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Canada keeps interest rates unchanged on October 28, 2026.