The Bank of England raises its benchmark interest rate again at its next policy meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 33% by 4 Feb 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

33% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-02-04.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 28% — The MPC is far more constrained by softening labor markets and growth than ongoing baseline energy price spikes. The MPC next convenes on December 17, 2026, where recent UK headline inflation trends favor a pause over back-to-back tightening. Central banks rarely hike sequentially without clear wage-spiral evidence, which remains absent across the UK services sector. A sharp revision upward in quarterly GDP or a sudden sterling drop against the dollar would be required to force another hike.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 20% — Hinges on BoE's next MPC meeting decision amid inflation/energy data between now and Feb 2027. BoE just hiked after a long pause, and central banks typically pause to assess effects before hiking again consecutively. Base rate for back-to-back hikes at the very next meeting is low unless inflation data surprises sharply upward. A sustained energy price spike or sticky core inflation print would be the key trigger that could change this.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 71% — This hinges on whether inflation and wage data stay firm enough for the MPC to keep tightening at its next meeting. The nine-member MPC must vote for another increase, likely at its December 2026 meeting, after reviewing November inflation and labour data. Following an initial post-pause hike, consecutive moves are common when energy-driven inflation is broadening, but not automatic. A sharp fall in gas prices or weak growth and payroll data before the meeting would materially reduce the case for another rise.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 27% — Whether Nov CPI and energy prices force a second hike at the 17 Dec MPC after the first in three years. MPC next sits 17 Dec 2026; a hike then would be consecutive after the recent first move in >3 years, which historically occurs in only ~15% of hiking cycles. Inflation must still print well above 3% with no energy-price relief by the 16 Dec data cutoff, otherwise the Committee pauses to assess lag. A November CPI surprise above 3.5% plus another energy spike would most raise the odds; otherwise they hold.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 38% — Whether the MPC judges the energy-driven inflation spike as persistent enough to tighten again at its next meeting. The MPC's next decision is 2026-12-17; a hike needs a majority of the nine-member committee convinced inflation will stay above 2%. Base rate: after a first hike, the BoE has historically paused more often than not, but 2022's energy shock saw consecutive hikes. A further leg up in wholesale gas prices or a hot November CPI print would most change my mind toward a hike.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 58% — Consecutive hikes after a long pause are common when the inflation driver is clearly identified, but the BoE often prefers to assess. In the 2021–23 cycle the BoE hiked at 14 consecutive meetings once it began, so back-to-back hikes are well within precedent. A first hike after 3+ years signals the MPC sees a regime shift; pausing immediately would undermine forward guidance credibility. The main scenario that flips this to No: a sharp drop in wholesale gas prices between now and the December meeting, removing the urgency.

The Bank of England raises its benchmark interest rate again at its next policy meeting.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raises its cash rate target again before the end of 2026.

The Bank of Japan raises its policy rate at its December 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank raises policy rates at its December 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at its December 2026 meeting.