The Reserve Bank of Australia raises its cash rate target again before the end of 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 35% by 4 Feb 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

35% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-02-04.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 37% — Turns on whether Q4 2026 trimmed mean CPI accelerates above 3.5% before the February 2027 RBA Board meeting. The RBA has only one or two board meetings remaining before February 2027, severely limiting opportunities to hike. Five hikes already completed in 2026 create a high bar to tighten further without a renewed supply shock or wage breakout. A trimmed mean print above 3.8% in late January 2027 would immediately force an additional 25bp hike at the February meeting.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 22% — Hinges on whether Q4 2026 inflation/wage data forces one more RBA hike before early Feb 2027. Only two RBA meetings remain before the Feb 4 deadline (Dec 2026 and likely early Feb 2027), limiting windows to act. Five hikes already in 2026 suggests tightening is near a peak, and central banks typically pause after rapid front-loaded cycles. A hot CPI or wages print in late Nov/Dec would be the key trigger that could push the RBA to hike again.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — It turns on whether inflation or wages reaccelerate enough to outweigh concern about overtightening after five hikes. The RBA Board has only its 8 December 2026 and 2 February 2027 meetings before the cutoff. Five 2026 increases make another move less typical, but a late-cycle inflation surprise has repeatedly extended tightening cycles. A material fall in quarterly CPI or unemployment weakening sharply would make a sixth hike much less likely.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 28% — Only the 1 Dec 2026 RBA meeting remains after five 2026 hikes. November meeting has passed (today 6 Nov), leaving solely the first-Tuesday December decision. Five hikes already imply the Board views policy as restrictive; further tightening needs a clear inflation overshoot that has not been flagged. Historical RBA cycles rarely add a sixth hike in the final month once markets and economists treat the cycle as complete.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 38% — Whether Q3/Q4 inflation data forces the RBA's hand at its December or February meeting. The RBA has hiked five times in 2026, and its November statement language still flags upside inflation risks, so the bar to another move is low. Only the RBA Board acts, and it has two remaining meetings (Dec 8-9, 2026 and Feb 2-3, 2027) before the resolution date. Quarterly CPI on Jan 27, 2027 is the key gate; a trimmed mean above 3% would likely force a February hike, while a clear drop below 2.5% would kill it.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 33% — Five hikes already delivered; the question is whether inflation data forces a sixth before only 1–2 meetings remain in 2026. After five hikes in one year the RBA is deep into restrictive territory; historically cycles this aggressive rarely extend more than one meeting past the fifth hike. Only the November and possibly December meetings remain in 2026, so a single soft CPI print or stable labour-market reading would be enough to pause. The fact that economists are actively debating rather than consensus-calling a sixth hike suggests the modal view is 'done,' which I weight as a mild negative signal.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raises its cash rate target again before the end of 2026.

The Bank of England raises its benchmark interest rate again at its next policy meeting.

The Bank of Japan raises its policy rate at its December 2026 meeting.

The European Central Bank raises policy rates at its December 2026 meeting.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at its December 2026 meeting.