The Bank of England raises its benchmark interest rate at its November 2026 policy meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 33% by 11 Nov 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

33% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-11.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 38% — The MPC will only hike if late-2026 energy price spikes visibly bleed into wage settlements and services inflation. The MPC historically looks through supply-side energy shocks unless second-round persistence threatens their 2% medium-term remit. Central bank consensus often softens closer to meetings when growth slows, giving a pause or hold substantial defensive appeal. A decisive print in September services CPI above 5.5% due in mid-October would push odds over 60%.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 20% — Hinges on whether UK inflation/energy pressures force BoE to reverse its cutting cycle by the Nov 2026 MPC meeting. BoE has been in an easing cycle through 2025-26, and reversing to a hike requires a sharp, sustained inflation surprise. Central banks rarely hike after prolonged cutting cycles without clear multi-month evidence of entrenched inflation, which takes time to confirm. Bloomberg Economics flagging a hike shows real tail risk from energy costs, but consensus and market pricing likely still favor hold/cut, capping probability.

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GPT (OpenAI): 28% — It hinges on whether an energy-led inflation shock is broad and persistent enough to override weak-growth concerns within one meeting. The nine-member MPC must vote for a hike at its scheduled 5 November meeting, before the 11 November resolution date. Historically, the MPC rarely reverses toward tightening quickly after easing unless inflation expectations and wage data also accelerate. A sharp October CPI surprise or oil/gas disruption feeding into core inflation would materially raise the odds.

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Grok (xAI): 62% — October CPI print and energy-price path must show inflation stuck above target into 2027. MPC decision is 5 Nov; 21 Oct CPI plus BoE staff forecasts have to justify reversing any prior easing. Hikes occur in <15% of meetings outside 2022-style shocks; energy surge lifts this case above that base. A 10%+ drop in TTF/Brent by 31 Oct would most reverse the Bloomberg call.

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DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — This turns on whether the MPC's November vote shifts from hold to hike on one more inflation print. The MPC sets Bank Rate at the meeting ending 5 November 2026, with the decision and minutes published that day. Before then only one CPI release lands (21 October); a print near 4% or higher is the main trigger for a hike. Base rate for a hike at a single meeting is roughly 1 in 10; Bloomberg's call and energy-driven inflation push this above that, but a 7-2 hold is still the likely…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 64% — Energy-driven inflation revival makes a hike plausible, but the BoE has a history of pausing when growth risks compound. Bloomberg Economics forecasting a hike signals market consensus is leaning that way, but forecasters have been wrong on BoE timing before. The BoE's MPC has paused mid-cycle when energy shocks coincided with weakening demand; a dovish split among external members could block a majority. A sharper-than-expected deterioration in UK GDP or labour data between now and Nov 5 would be the single development most likely to flip this to a hold.

The Bank of England raises its benchmark interest rate at its November 2026 policy meeting.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises its official cash rate at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Canada raises its policy interest rate at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Japan raises its inflation forecasts in its 30 October 2026 outlook report.

The Bank of Japan leaves its policy rate unchanged at its 30 October 2026 meeting.