The Bank of Japan raises interest rates at its September 17–18, 2026 meeting.
Markets currently price a roughly 75% chance of a quarter-point rate increase. Resolves yes if the BOJ announces a benchmark rate hike on September 18, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 72%.
They broadly agree, 6 points between Gemini at 74% and Claude at 68%.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
Multiple sources (Reuters, the BOJ's own policy statement, CNBC) confirm that at its September 17–18, 2026 meeting, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% from 1%, a 31-year high, decided by a 7-2 majority vote.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- BOJ raises interest rates to 31-year high in widely expected move
- Bank of Japan raises policy rate to 31-year high (Live)
- BOJ Policy Statement, September 18, 2026
- BOJ lifts rates to 31-year high, pivots towards preemptive tightening
- BOJ to raise rates to 1.25% this month, reach 1.75% faster ...
- BOJ live: Japan's central bank raises policy rate to 31-year high
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Market pricing four days out is high at 75%, but BOJ sometimes prefers caution amid market volatility.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202674% -
GPTOpenAI
Market pricing is strongly favorable, but BOJ decisions can shift on late inflation, yen, or growth data.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
GrokxAI
Markets ~75%; last-minute BOJ surprises rare but data-dependence leaves modest room for no-hike.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Market-implied ~75%; BOJ has signaled tightening bias, but recent hikes were well-telegraphed and timing risk remains.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
QwenAlibaba
Market pricing ~75% is strong signal; BOJ rarely surprises against well-priced expectations this close to meeting.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Market pricing (75%) is informative but often overstates near-term BOJ action; slight discount warranted
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202668%
6 of 6 models answered · 6 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.