The Bank of Japan raises interest rates by at least 25 basis points on September 18, 2026.
Markets are pricing a 75% chance of a quarter-point hike at the upcoming BoJ monetary policy meeting on September 18, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 73%.
They broadly agree, 6 points between Gemini at 74% and GPT at 68%.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
Multiple reputable outlets (Reuters, AFP, CNBC, Channel NewsAsia, Central Banking) reported that the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18, 2026, a 31-year high, consistent with the statement.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- BOJ raises interest rates to 31-year high in widely expected move
- BOJ rate hike signals faster pace of tightening amid ...
- BoJ raises rates to 31-year high
- Investors react to BOJ raising interest rates to 31-year high - Reuters
- Bank of Japan lifts rate to 31-year high of 1.25% on Sept 18
- BOJ lifts rates to 31-year high, pivots towards preemptive ...
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Market pricing just 4 days out is strongly predictive, though BOJ occasionally surprises on hold.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202674% -
GrokxAI
4 days out, market 75% is strong; BoJ caution bias slightly lowers odds vs.
- priced hike.
73% -
QwenAlibaba
Market pricing at 75% is strong base; slight haircut for last-minute data surprises or caution.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202673% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Market pricing near 75% is a strong prior; slight discount for BoJ's historical caution.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Market-implied odds are the best guide; meeting-specific hikes rarely deviate far from pricing.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
GPTOpenAI
Market-implied 75% is strong, but policy surprises and timing shifts leave meaningful downside.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202668%
6 of 6 models answered · 6 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.