The Bank of Japan raises interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its September 18, 2026 meeting.
Traders are pricing roughly a 75% probability of a quarter-point rate increase. Resolves if the BOJ announces an increase of at least 0.25 percentage points to its policy rate on September 18, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 72%.
They broadly agree, 6 points between Grok at 74% and Claude at 68%.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
Multiple sources (Reuters, Bank of Japan official statement, Japan Times, Channel News Asia, others) confirm that at its September 18, 2026 meeting, the BOJ raised its policy rate by 25 basis points, from 1.00% to 1.25%, in a 7-2 vote, matching the statement exactly.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- BOJ raises interest rates to 31-year high in widely expected move
- Bank of Japan raises policy rate to 31-year high
- Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
- Bank of Japan lifts rates to 31-year high, two board members dissent
- Investors react to BOJ raising interest rates to 31-year high - Reuters
- BOJ lifts rates to 31-year high, pivots towards preemptive inflation fight
What each one said
-
GrokxAI
Markets price ~75% four days out; BOJ rarely surprises vs.
- well-telegraphed hike path.
74% -
GeminiGoogle
Market implied odds are around 75% just days before the decision, with slight risk of BOJ delay.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202673% -
GPTOpenAI
Market pricing is already high, but BOJ can still defer on yen, inflation, or global-growth shocks.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Market-implied ~75%; BOJ has hiked before, but FX/political pressure can delay; slight haircut for timing risk.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
QwenAlibaba
Market pricing ~75%; BOJ has been hiking gradually, but yen strength and inflation data could shift the final call.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Market pricing ~75% but BOJ often defers hikes; slight discount for surprise-delay risk
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202668%
6 of 6 models answered · 6 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.