The Bank of Japan raises its benchmark interest rate at its next policy meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 46% by 18 Dec 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

46% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-18.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 22% — The BOJ rarely hikes at back-to-back meetings, especially right after a split vote pushed rates to a cycle high of 1.25%. Governor Ueda and the board historically pause between hikes to monitor wage pass-through, financial conditions, and JPY volatility. A split vote at the last meeting indicates strong internal resistance to consecutive tightening moves without fresh quarterly outlook data. Sharp yen depreciation beyond 160 per dollar ahead of the upcoming decision would be the primary catalyst forcing an immediate hike.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 30% — Depends on whether inflation and wage data by the next meeting justify another hike after the recent split vote. BOJ typically pauses several meetings between hikes to assess effects, favoring gradual normalization over back-to-back moves. Recent split vote signals internal caution, and yen stability/inflation trajectory will determine urgency for the next meeting. A sharp yen depreciation or inflation surprise above target would be the main catalyst pushing toward an earlier hike.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — The decisive variable is whether wage and inflation data keep the BOJ confident enough to overcome dovish board resistance. The next scheduled meeting is likely in late October 2026, so the nine-member Policy Board can act without waiting for year-end data. A 1.25% split-vote hike and explicit tightening signal put this above the usual one-meeting hike base rate, but not near certainty. A material CPI or wage slowdown, yen appreciation, or global risk shock would most likely defer the move despite the guidance.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 28% — Whether the board hikes again at the immediate next meeting after already raising to 1.25%. Ueda and the nine-member board must vote another increase at the late-Oct/early-Nov 2026 meeting, with no intervening pause. Consecutive BOJ hikes are historically rare; the explicit signal and split vote lift this case only modestly above that base. A stronger yen or weaker wage/inflation prints before the meeting would most shift the odds to no hike.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 63% — Whether the BOJ follows its own hawkish signal at the next board meeting or waits for more wage and price evidence. Ueda's board has raised twice since 2024 and kept signaling normalization, so a hike is always live rather than exceptional. Minutes from the last split vote put the next move data-dependent, with Q3 GDP and autumn shunto wage signals arriving just before the meeting. A yen spike or a global tariff shock that forces the BOJ to prioritize stability over inflation would flip this to no.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 62% — BOJ's forward guidance and split vote signal intent, but yen strength and global risk appetite will determine timing. The BOJ raised to 1.25% with a split vote and explicit tightening bias, which historically precedes a follow-up hike within 1-2 meetings. The next meeting is likely late October 2025; the BOJ has rarely signaled this clearly without delivering within two meetings since 2024. A sharp yen rally or global risk-off event (e.g., US recession scare) could delay, but the bar for postponement is high given the stated intent.

The Bank of Japan raises its benchmark interest rate at its next policy meeting.

The next reported weekly figure for India's foreign exchange reserves exceeds $785.7 billion.

The next official UK CPI release shows annual inflation higher than 3.1%.

The Bank of England increases the Bank Rate at its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

The European Central Bank raises its deposit facility rate at its next policy meeting.