The Bank of Japan raises its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its September 18, 2026 meeting.
Traders are pricing roughly a 75% chance of a quarter-point rate increase by the BoJ. The outcome is settled by the official monetary policy decision on Sept. 18.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 72%.
They broadly agree, 16 points between Gemini at 74% and Claude at 58%.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
Multiple reputable outlets (Reuters, AFP, CNBC, Channel News Asia, Central Banking) reported that the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points from 1.00% to 1.25% at its meeting concluding September 18, 2026, via a 7-2 vote. No contradicting reports were found.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- BOJ lifts rates to 31-year high, pivots towards preemptive ...
- BOJ raises rates to over 30-year high
- Bank of Japan hikes rates to 31-year high to battle inflation
- BOJ rate hike signals faster pace of tightening amid ...
- BoJ raises rates to 31-year high
- Tokyo, Sept 18, 2026 (AFP) - Bank of Japan hikes key interest rate to ...
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Market pricing at 75% days before the meeting is historically an accurate indicator of BoJ actions.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202674% -
GrokxAI
4 days out, OIS already ~75%; BoJ rarely surprises vs.
- priced path this close…
74% -
GPTOpenAI
Market pricing is strong, but BoJ can defer if inflation, wages, or global conditions soften.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Market-implied ~75%; no meeting since July, no shock catalyst in 4 days to derail a well-telegraphed hike.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
QwenAlibaba
Market pricing ~75% but BoJ has history of surprising dovishly; slight discount to market consensus.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202668% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Market prices ~75% by some date, but 25bp exactly at this specific meeting is less certain
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202658%
6 of 6 models answered · 16 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.