The Bank of Japan raises its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% at its upcoming policy meeting.
Markets are pricing an approximately 79% chance of a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25%. Resolution depends on the official policy rate statement issued at the conclusion of the BOJ meeting.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 76%.
They broadly agree, 6 points between DeepSeek at 82% and Claude at 76%.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
The Bank of Japan's Policy Board decided on September 18, 2026 to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to around 1.25% from 1%, as confirmed by the BOJ's own statement and multiple major outlets (Reuters, CNBC, Japan Times), matching the statement's prediction ahead of the September 21, 2026 deadline.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- BOJ raises rates to over 30-year high - CNBC
- BOJ raises interest rates to 31-year high in widely expected move
- Bank of Japan raises rates and offers mixed signals about ...
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) raises policy rate by 25bp, as expected
- BOJ lifts rates to 31-year high, pivots towards preemptive ... - Reuters
- Bank of Japan raises rates to 1.25%, highest since 1995
What each one said
-
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Market-implied 79% plus BOJ signaling; one-week window, no scheduled shock to derail.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
GeminiGoogle
Market pricing reflects strong conviction, with modest downside from standard BOJ caution.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202677% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Market pricing near 79% is strong signal; BOJ policy moves often align with priced expectations
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202676% -
GPTOpenAI
Near-term market pricing is high, but BOJ can defer on inflation, wages, or market volatility.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202676% -
GrokxAI
Market-implied 79% is well-calibrated for a near-term BOJ meeting; modest hold risk remains.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202676% -
QwenAlibaba
Market pricing at 79% is strong base; BOJ rarely surprises against such high implied odds.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202676%
6 of 6 models answered · 6 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.