⚡ ENERGY 1 YEAR HORIZON RESOLVES 14 SEPT 2027 · in 11mo

The European Union formally adopts a tax on oil and gas profits to fund climate adaptation.

Spain urged the EU to tax fossil fuel profits for climate adaptation following extreme summer heat. Adoption requires formal agreement by EU member states at upcoming budget or tax summits.

Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 11%.

They broadly agree, 12 points between GPT at 18% and Claude at 6%.

Nothing is settled until 14 Sept 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.

MODEL BY MODEL

What each one said

  • GPTOpenAI

    EU-wide tax measures need unanimous member-state backing, which windfall-profit proposals rarely secure.

    openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 2026
    18%
  • GrokxAI

    EU tax unanimity + no Commission proposal yet; 1-year window too short.

    x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    12%
  • DeepSeekDeepSeek

    EU tax measures need unanimous member-state approval; no proposal exists and capitals are split.

    deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 2026
    12%
  • GeminiGoogle

    EU tax policy requires unanimous member state approval, making formal adoption within one year very unlikely.

    google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 2026
    9%
  • QwenAlibaba

    EU tax measures require unanimity; fossil-fuel-producing states will block.

    • No precedent for such a levy.
    qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    7%
  • ClaudeAnthropic

    EU tax unanimity requirement and fossil-fuel state opposition make adoption unlikely by 2027

    anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 2026
    6%

6 of 6 models answered · 12 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?
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Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.