The Federal Reserve hikes its target interest rate at the September 15–16, 2026 meeting.
Markets are pricing a 65–70% probability of a 25 bps hike following August CPI data. Resolves yes if the FOMC announces an interest rate increase on September 16, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 68%.
They broadly agree, 3 points between Gemini at 68% and Claude at 65%.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
Multiple major outlets (Reuters, CNBC, USA Today, Fox Business, NYT) and the Fed's own implementation note confirm the FOMC raised its target rate range to 3.75%-4.00% at the September 15-16, 2026 meeting, a 25 basis point hike.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%
- Fed raises rates in search of 'timelier' drop in inflation, sees ...
- The Fed raised rates. Borrowing is about to get more expensive
- Fed meeting recap: Warsh says inflation is still too high as Fed hikes ...
- Federal Reserve hikes interest rates for first time since 2023
- Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for 'Timelier' Retreat ...
What each one said
-
GeminiGoogle
Markets price a 65-70% chance two days before the meeting; Fed typically validates strong pricing.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202668% -
GrokxAI
Markets at 65-70% post-CPI; FOMC almost never surprises this close to a scheduled decision.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202668% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Market-implied odds 65-70% after CPI; no catalyst in 2 days to flip a near-priced hike.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202668% -
QwenAlibaba
Markets pricing ~65-70% hike odds post-CPI; FOMC rarely surprises against strong market consensus.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202668% -
GPTOpenAI
Market-implied odds near 65–70% are the strongest available signal one day before the meeting.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202667% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Market pricing 65-70% based on August CPI data suggests strong likelihood of a hike.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202665%
6 of 6 models answered · 3 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.