The Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 2026 meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 4% by 9 Dec 2026. The market says 76%. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

4% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-12-09.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 4% — The Fed is entrenched in an easing or neutral regime, making a surprise year-end rate hike exceedingly improbable. The FOMC is navigating rate cuts rather than hikes, requiring a severe, abrupt inflation resurgence by Q4 2026 to reverse course. Central banks rarely hike into year-end liquidity crunches without extensive advance signaling across multiple prior meetings. A sustained core CPI reacceleration above 4.5% annualized by October 2026 would be necessary to force a sudden 25 bps hike.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 3% — Fed is in a cutting cycle amid labor-market softness; a hike at this specific meeting is highly unlikely. Fed cut rates through 2025 and current market/Fed guidance points to further cuts or holds, not hikes, into late 2026. A rate hike would require a sharp inflation resurgence or overheating that isn't in current data or Fed communications as of Sep 2026. Base rate for a single-meeting 25bp hike after a cutting cycle within 15 months is very low absent a major inflation shock.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 14% — It turns on whether inflation or labor-market data force the FOMC to reverse course and tighten by December. The 12-member FOMC must see a clear upside inflation surprise; its next scheduled decision after Sept. 28 is Dec. 8-9. Across modern cycles, a single 25-bp December hike is uncommon absent an ongoing tightening campaign or renewed inflation acceleration. A sustained rise in core PCE and inflation expectations through October-November would materially raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 8% — A Dec hike requires inflation to reaccelerate sharply after the Sept SEP, reversing any easing path. FOMC must vote a 25bp upper-bound rise at the 9-10 Dec meeting; Nov 4-5 meeting and Oct-Nov CPI/PCE must first show a clear upside surprise. Outside active hiking cycles (2015-18), Dec 25bp hikes have a near-zero base rate; current path is hold-or-cut. Only a 0.4pp+ core PCE jump or financial-stress reversal would flip the committee.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 4% — This turns on whether inflation re-accelerates hard enough to force a hike in the two remaining 2026 meetings. The FOMC has been in a cutting/hold posture; a 25bp hike in December would require a sharp inflation reversal not currently priced. Markets and the dot plot imply cuts or holds through 2026, so a hike sits far below the base rate of recent cycles. The one development that would change this is a sustained core PCE spike above 4% forcing the Fed to reverse course.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 4% — The Fed is in a cutting cycle, not a hiking cycle; a 25bp hike in Dec 2026 would require a dramatic inflation resurgence. The Fed cut rates in late 2024 and has been on hold or cutting through 2025-2026; no FOMC member projects hikes in the current SEP dot plot. A 25bp hike would require inflation to re-accelerate sharply above target in the next 2-3 months, which no mainstream forecast supports. The only path is a supply shock or tariff-driven price surge severe enough to force a reversal, which is possible but low-probability given current data.

The Federal Reserve increases interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 2026 meeting.

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