The Federal Reserve increases the target federal funds rate in 2026.
Inflation persistence has sparked debate over whether US monetary policy could tighten further. Resolves as yes if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is raised at or prior to the Fed's December 2026 meeting.
Across 4 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 6%.
They broadly agree, 15 points between GPT at 18% and DeepSeek at 3%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 100%, so the models are 94 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome — one of the wider gaps in the archive.
Nothing is settled until 9 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -94 pts
- Moved this week
- +25 pts
- Since we asked
- +13 pts
- Volume
- $10.1M
The models are sharply less confident than traders risking real money: 6% against 100%.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
By September, a 2026 hike likely would have occurred already; late-year tightening is uncommon.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Fed in cutting cycle amid labor market softening; hike would require inflation surprise reversal
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20268% -
GeminiGoogle
Only three meetings remain in 2026 amid an easing cycle; a sudden hawkish reversal is extremely unlikely.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20264% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
By Sept 2026, only 3 meetings left; Fed in cutting/easing bias, no hike priced.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 20263% -
GrokxAIno answer this run x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
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QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
4 of 6 models answered · 15 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.