The Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged at its 28 October 2026 meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 86% by 1 Nov 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

86% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-11-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 88% — FOMC decisions within three days of a meeting virtually never defy entrenched late-cycle market expectations. Fed funds futures price a hold near 90% heading into the blackout period, which policymakers rarely contradict without warning. September inflation at 3.7% constrains rate cuts, while tightening financial conditions reduce appetite for another hike. An unexpected emergency inter-meeting shock or sudden liquidity freeze is the only realistic catalyst for an unscheduled shift.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 58% — Depends on whether inflation stays sticky near 3.7% into late October 2026, pushing FOMC to pause after recent cuts. Markets per context already lean toward a hold, suggesting futures pricing reflects this as the modal outcome. FOMC decisions this far out (just before the Oct 28 meeting) are hard to flip without a major data surprise or shock. Fed has been cutting through 2025-26 amid labor market concerns, so a hold would mark a pause rather than continuation, adding some uncertainty.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 81% — The decision hinges on whether September’s inflation uptick is judged persistent enough to warrant an immediate hike. The FOMC must vote on 28 October; a hold needs no external approval and is the market’s prevailing expectation. At scheduled meetings, unchanged decisions are the modal outcome absent a sharp inflation or labor-market surprise just before the vote. A major revision in late data, or officials signaling inflation expectations are unanchoring, would most raise hike odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 84% — FOMC follows already-priced hold three days out despite 3.7% CPI. Markets price a hold; FOMC almost never surprises on the funds-rate decision this close to a meeting. September CPI is already published; no further inflation prints land before 28 Oct. A last-minute hawkish override by Powell would be the only path to a hike, which has near-zero recent precedent.

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DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 88% — A hold is the path of least resistance; only a September CPI shock or a coordinated hawkish push would force a hike. The FOMC's own September dot plot and Powell's October remarks signaled patience, and no speaker since has called for an immediate hike. With CPI at 3.7% but core PCE near 2.8% and unemployment ticking up, the committee's reaction function favors waiting for more data before moving. Base rate for no-change at a meeting with no dot plot and no press conference is high; the main risk is a hot October CPI print on 30 October, which lands after the…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 94% — Markets pricing a hold 3 days out; the Fed almost never surprises when expectations are this settled. Fed blackout period began ~Oct 14; any shift in stance would have been signaled by then, and markets still expect a hold. Since 2000, the Fed has surprised markets on rate decisions fewer than 5% of the time when futures implied >90% probability of a given outcome. A surprise hike at 3.7% inflation is possible in principle but would require a dramatic last-minute catalyst, which is nearly impossible to manufacture in 3 days.

The Federal Reserve leaves its policy rate unchanged at its 28 October 2026 meeting.

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The Bank of Japan leaves its policy rate unchanged at its 30 October 2026 meeting.