The Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its December 2026 meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 16% by 6 Jan 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

16% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-01-06.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 14% — The Fed requires severe inflation reacceleration in October and November prints to justify resuming hikes rather than holding. Historically, once the FOMC pauses a cycle, the bar to resume hiking within two meetings exceeds a 50 bps core PCE spike. With labor markets softening into late 2026, the committee heavily favors maintaining high terminal rates over fresh hikes. A monthly core CPI print exceeding 0.5% in both October and November 2026 is the only catalyst that would force a December hike.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 4% — Fed has been cutting/holding, not hiking; reversing to a hike by Dec 2026 would require a sharp inflation surge. Current trajectory is cuts/pauses amid labor market softness, making an abrupt hike highly unusual absent shock inflation data. Fed rarely reverses course within a year without clear persistent upside inflation surprises confirmed over multiple reports. Would need several hot CPI/PCE prints plus hawkish Fed communication shift between now and December to justify a hike.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — It turns chiefly on whether inflation reaccelerates enough to overturn an expected October pause before December 2026. The 12 voting FOMC members would need data through November to show inflation or expectations materially worsening. After a pause, December hikes are uncommon unless conditions deteriorate sharply; restrictive policy normally favors holding or easing. A sustained core-inflation rebound or unmooring expectations in the October-November releases would raise this estimate most.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 28% — Whether Oct-Nov inflation/labor data force a post-pause hike at the mid-Dec FOMC. FOMC votes Dec 15-16; Nov CPI/PCE and jobs must show reacceleration above target first. Post-pause hike base rate is 15-25% (1994/2006 exceptions); sits a bit higher as inflation still exceeds 2%. Core PCE drop below 2.3% or unemployment spike would most shift odds down.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — Whether core PCE inflation is still running near 3% when the FOMC meets Dec 8-9, 2026. The FOMC has held since its last cut; a hike requires a majority of 12 voters to reverse direction, and Powell's term expires May 2026, so a new chair's reaction… Base rate: the Fed has hiked within three months of a pause only when core inflation re-accelerated above 3.5%; current core PCE near 2.8-3.0% sits below that trigger. The development that would flip this: a November CPI or PCE print above 3.5% core, which would force even dovish voters to signal a December hike.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 12% — The Fed would need inflation to re-accelerate sharply in Q4 2026 to justify hiking after a pause, which is historically rare. The Fed has not raised rates after a pause in the same cycle since 2006; the bar is a clear inflation surprise, not just sticky data. Current dot plot and futures pricing imply the terminal rate has been reached; officials signaling a pause typically don't reverse within one meeting. A reversal would require something like a fiscal shock or supply disruption pushing core PCE back above 3.5% by November data—possible but low probability.

The Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its December 2026 meeting.

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