The Federal Reserve raises interest rates at its September 15-16, 2026 meeting.
Futures markets showed a 58% chance of a hike following recent payroll data. The FOMC rate decision is announced on September 16, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 58%.
They broadly agree, 6 points between Gemini at 58% and Claude at 52%.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
The Federal Reserve's FOMC statement dated September 16, 2026 confirms the Committee raised the target federal funds rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, matching the September 15-16, 2026 meeting date in the statement. This is corroborated by multiple major outlets including Reuters, CNBC, and the New York Times, all reporting the rate hike on the same date.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
- Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%
- Fed raises rates in search of 'timelier' drop in inflation, sees ...
- Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for 'Timelier' Retreat ...
- Fed Raises Rates in September, Officials Signal One More ...
- Fed Meeting Recap: FOMC Hikes Interest Rates As Expected
What each one said
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GeminiGoogle
Market pricing 2 days before FOMC decision strongly anchors expectations unless deliberately guided away.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202658% -
GPTOpenAI
Market-implied odds are 58%, and only a two-day window remains for major data to change the outlook.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202658% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Futures-implied odds are the best available estimate; no new info before the decision.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202658% -
QwenAlibaba
Futures market pricing is the best short-horizon signal; only 2 days out.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202658% -
GrokxAI
Fed funds futures already 58% two days pre-meeting; FOMC rarely defies that pricing.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202657% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Market-implied 58% but Fed surprises/dovish tilts common; slight discount from headline pricing
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202652%
6 of 6 models answered · 6 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.