The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 8% by 8 Jan 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

8% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-01-08.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 8% — A rate hike requires an abrupt, severe re-acceleration in inflation and labor tightness within two months. The FOMC is positioned in an easing or wait-and-see posture, making an explicit hike on Dec 9, 2026 extraordinarily rare. Only 2 monthly CPI releases occur before December 9, giving insufficient runway to justify resuming tightening. A massive upside shock to headline inflation above 4% annualized would shift my assessment substantially.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 3% — Fed is in an easing cycle; a December 2026 hike would require an inflation surge reversal, not just a pause. As of Oct 2026 Fed has been cutting/pausing, not signaling hikes, so a reversal to hiking needs major inflation shock first. Base rate for a hike at any single meeting during an easing cycle is extremely low, historically near zero absent crisis conditions. Only a sharp unexpected inflation spike or wage/price data surge between now and Dec 9 2026 would meaningfully raise this probability.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 27% — It turns on whether inflation or inflation expectations reaccelerate enough to overcome the Fed’s pause bias by December. The 12-member FOMC would need to lift the target range on December 9 after its November 3–4 decision and new data. December hikes after a near-term pause are uncommon; policymakers usually wait for several months of adverse inflation evidence. A sharp CPI/PCE upside surprise or a jump in long-run expectations before the November meeting would materially raise the odds.

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Grok (xAI): 18% — Whether November inflation prints force a hike after an expected October pause. FOMC votes Dec 9 after Oct/Nov CPI and PCE; a pause in late Oct is the default path. Post-pause hikes are rare (~15% of similar windows since 1990) unless core inflation reaccelerates above 3%. A 0.4%+ October CPI would most change the odds; otherwise they hold.

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DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 7% — A December hike needs inflation to re-accelerate hard before the FOMC meets, which current data does not support. The FOMC's last hike was July 2023; it has cut or held for over three years, so a December 2026 hike would break a strong no-hike base rate. A hike requires inflation re-accelerating sharply or labor data surprising hawkishly between now and December 9, clearing through the SEP and November CPI on December 10. Powell's term expires May 2026 and a new chair with a dovish bent would likely keep the committee on hold; a hot Q3 core PCE print above 3.5% is the clearest trigger for…

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 7% — The Fed is in a cutting or holding cycle, not hiking; a rate increase would require a dramatic inflation shock in ~2 months. The Fed's last rate hike was July 2023; since then it has held or cut, and current trajectory points toward easing, not tightening. A hike by Dec 9 would need a sudden inflation re-acceleration severe enough to reverse the entire policy stance within 8 weeks. Base rate for a hike after 3+ years without one is near zero; only a supply shock or fiscal crisis could shift this materially.

The Federal Reserve raises its benchmark interest rate at the December 9, 2026 FOMC meeting.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raises its official cash rate at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Canada raises its policy interest rate at its 29 October 2026 meeting.

The Bank of Japan raises its inflation forecasts in its 30 October 2026 outlook report.

The Bank of Japan leaves its policy rate unchanged at its 30 October 2026 meeting.