The Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate at its September 16, 2026 meeting.
Markets were pricing roughly 60% odds of a rate hike ahead of the decision. The event resolves as yes if the FOMC announces an interest rate increase on September 16.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 61%.
They broadly agree, 22 points between Qwen at 62% and Claude at 40%.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
The Federal Reserve's own FOMC statement and implementation note from September 16, 2026 confirm the Committee raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. This was corroborated by multiple major outlets including CNBC, NYT, Fox Business, and WSJ reporting the same day.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- Implementation Note issued September 16, 2026
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
- Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%
- Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for 'Timelier' Retreat in Inflation
- Federal Reserve hikes interest rates for first time since 2023
- Fed meeting recap: Warsh says inflation is still too high as Fed hikes ...
What each one said
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QwenAlibaba
Markets pricing ~60%; FOMC rarely surprises against strong market pricing this close to a meeting.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202662% -
GeminiGoogle
Market pricing two days before FOMC is an accurate baseline with slight typical inertia.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202661% -
GrokxAI
Fed rarely surprises vs.
- ~60% priced odds two days out; hike still not locked.
61% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Market-implied odds ~60% are the best available estimate; no strong reason to deviate.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202660% -
GPTOpenAI
Market-implied odds near 60% shortly before the meeting dominate absent new information.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202658% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Market pricing near 60% is unusually high for a Fed hike; base rates favor caution near meeting dates
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202640%
6 of 6 models answered · 22 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.