The Governor of California signs the clean energy and climate bills passed at the end of the 2026 legislative

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 86% by 27 Oct 2026. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

86% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2026-10-27.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 78% — Enactment turns on whether Newsom pre-negotiated the package rather than using his standard fiscal veto on peripheral measures. California's constitution requires the governor to sign or veto regular session bills by September 30, well ahead of October 27. Newsom typically vetoes 10 to 15 percent of passed bills, often trimming secondary climate mandates over General Fund costs. A formal signing ceremony for the core negotiated affordability and energy compromise remains the dominant historical precedent.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 88% — Gavin Newsom has consistently signed most end-of-session climate/energy bills; the question is scope, not whether any signing occurs. California governors routinely sign the vast majority of legislature-passed bills, especially priority climate packages negotiated with leadership. Newsom has signed major climate bills in prior sessions (2022, 2023, 2024) despite occasional vetoes on cost or implementation grounds. Main risk is partial veto or delay past Oct 27 deadline on specific affordability provisions, not wholesale rejection of the package.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 78% — Newsom's successor will likely back a negotiated Democratic package, unless fiscal or affordability objections trigger vetoes. California governors typically have 12 days after adjournment to sign, veto, or let bills become law without signatures. Democratic supermajorities and an end-session affordability deal make enactment more likely than a stand-alone climate push. A major budget-revenue downgrade or business-cost backlash before the October 27 deadline would most reduce the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 84% — Whether Newsom signs (vs. veto/unsigned) the already-passed end-of-session climate package. Dem legislature passed the bills by late Sept 2026; Newsom has 30 days after adjournment, well before 27 Oct. CA governors sign ~85% of bills; Newsom has enacted prior climate packages, vetoing only isolated cost outliers. Unsigned enactment or a full-package veto would need a sudden fiscal/political rupture not in evidence.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 88% — Newsom has until Oct 27 to sign or veto; he has signed every prior end-of-session climate package. The 2026 session ended Sept 11; Newsom has 30 days from presentment, so signatures land by mid-October. He signed SB 253, SB 261, and the 2022 scoping-plan package; no end-of-session climate bill has drawn a veto. Affordability framing gives him cover, but a late rider on refinery or gas-price rules could trigger a veto message.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 94% — Newsom has signed nearly every end-of-session climate package since 2019; veto risk is near zero. Newsom signed all major climate bills in 2023 and 2024 end-of-session packages; his veto rate on passed bills is under 3%. The legislature passed the package before the session deadline, so the only actor is the governor within 30 days. A veto would require Newsom to publicly break with his own climate agenda months before leaving office—an incentive structure that doesn't exist.

The Governor of California signs the clean energy and climate bills passed at the end of the 2026 legislative session.

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