The Houthis maintain control over Perim Island through October 2026.
Recent fighting near the Bab al-Mandab strait included reports of Houthis taking Perim Island. Verification depends on whether Houthi forces retain control by end of October 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 68%.
They do not agree: DeepSeek puts it at 88% and Gemini at 14%, 74 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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DeepSeekDeepSeek
Houthis already hold it; no credible force is positioned to retake it within 6 weeks.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202688% -
QwenAlibaba
Houthis hold terrain stubbornly; no credible coalition has mounted a serious amphibious retake of Perim.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202678% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Houthis have held territory for years absent major offensive; status quo likely persists short-term
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202668% -
GrokxAI
6-week hold after reported capture; recapture needs major naval/air op unlikely to finish by Oct
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202668% -
GPTOpenAI
No clear force is positioned to retake and hold the small island, but control reports remain hard to verify.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202661% -
GeminiGoogle
Holding an exposed island under heavy anti-Houthi naval/air superiority in Bab al-Mandab is unsustainable.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202614%
6 of 6 models answered · 74 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.