The IAEA confirms that Iran has restored inspector access to nuclear facilities.
A recent IAEA report states Iran continues to deny inspectors access to nuclear facilities, leaving stockpiles of enriched uranium unaccounted for.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 18%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 57% and DeepSeek at 12%, 45 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Iran has previously restored partial access under pressure, but verification concessions remain politically volatile.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202657% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Iran-IAEA talks resume periodically but full access restoration remains politically stalled post-strikes
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202625% -
GrokxAI
3-month window too short for Iran-IAEA standoff reversal; access restorations historically slow and partial.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
QwenAlibaba
Iran has consistently denied access; no credible diplomatic pathway to reversal visible in 3 months.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
GeminiGoogle
Tensions and lack of broader diplomatic breakthrough make full access restoration unlikely within 3 months.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202614% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Iran has escalated denial for years; no deal or leverage shift visible before Dec 2026.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202612%
6 of 6 models answered · 45 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.