The United States and Iran reach a formal agreement following Doha-mediated talks.
Doha-mediated negotiations have continued without a breakthrough. A mutually accepted bilateral deal or signed framework counts.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 10%.
They broadly agree, 20 points between GPT at 24% and Gemini at 4%.
Nothing is settled until 1 Feb 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It hinges on whether Tehran accepts enforceable nuclear limits for meaningful, durable U.S. sanctions relief.
- Washington and Tehran must bridge sequencing, verification, and sanctions guarantees in fewer than three months.
- The 2015 JCPOA shows a deal is possible, but post-2018 distrust and indirect-talk failures make this window unfavorable.
- A public interim freeze-for-relief package, backed by Doha and IAEA access, would sharply raise the odds.
24% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether Trump administration and Khamenei's government can bridge enrichment red lines before Feb 2027.
- Years of talks (JCPOA 2015, 2021-22 Vienna, 2025 rounds) show deals take long and often collapse near the finish line.
- Iran's post-June 2025 strike posture and domestic hardline politics make concessions on enrichment or missiles politically costly for Tehran.
- A sudden regional de-escalation or US sanctions relief offer could accelerate talks, but no concrete framework has leaked as of now.
13% -
GrokxAI
A signed US-Iran framework in the next 90 days after months of stalled Doha talks.
- Qatar mediation has produced no text since talks resumed; both sides still demand preconditions the other rejects.
- JCPOA-style deals historically take 12-24 months after a political decision; none is visible from either capital.
- A sudden US or Iranian leadership concession on enrichment or sanctions would be the only path that could still close by 1 Feb.
12% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Whether Khamenei and Trump both accept a narrow nuclear-for-sanctions framework in the next 15 months.
- Doha talks have run since 2025 with no breakthrough; the June 2025 Israel-Iran war and snapback of UN sanctions in September 2025 hardened both sides.
- Any deal needs Khamenei's sign-off and Trump's approval, plus IAEA access terms and enrichment caps that neither has accepted in 18 months of talks.
- Base rate for US-Iran comprehensive agreements is near zero since 1979; the 2015 JCPOA took 20+ months of secret bilateral talks, and no comparable channel is open now.
7% -
QwenAlibaba
Three months is far too short to bridge the gap between maximum-pressure posture and a signed framework on nuclear/sanctions issues.
- US-Iran formal agreements are historically near-zero base rate; JCPOA took ~2 years of intensive multilateral negotiation after years of groundwork.
- The context explicitly states no breakthrough despite ongoing talks, meaning core sticking points (enrichment limits, sanctions architecture) remain unresolved with only…
- A narrow deal (prisoner-swap style) is the only plausible path, but the resolution criteria require a 'mutually accepted bilateral deal or signed framework,' which…
7% -
GeminiGoogle
A formal bilateral agreement requires months of drafting and political capital that neither Washington nor Tehran can commit in 90 days.
- Reaching signed accords after decades of hostility typically takes years; three months leaves almost zero time for technical annexes.
- Supreme Leader Khamenei and the US administration face severe domestic backlash against any concessions amid ongoing regional proxy conflicts.
- A verified freeze-for-freeze draft leaked by Qatari mediators would be the only signal capable of moving this probability meaningfully.
4%
6 of 6 models answered · 20 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 3 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.