The Orbital Launch Tower chopsticks successfully catch the Starship upper stage during Flight Test 14.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 25% by 1 Jul 2027. The market says 0%. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

25% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-07-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 27% — Catching the upper stage requires flawless orbital reentry and pinpoint hover accuracy SpaceX may not risk pad infrastructure on by IFT-14. Upper stage heat shield reliability and orbital entry trajectory must be mastered across multiple ocean soft-landings first. SpaceX took 5 flights to catch Super Heavy, but ship catch risks the entire orbital launch mount without proven precision hover. A catastrophic catch failure during an earlier booster attempt would destroy the tower and delay Ship catch tests past Flight 14.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 22% — Depends on whether SpaceX is even attempting ship catches by Flight 14, and whether that specific attempt succeeds. As of late 2025 SpaceX had only caught boosters, not the upper stage, with ship catches still a future milestone under development. Given the recent string of Starship upper-stage failures/anomalies in 2024-2025, reaching flight 14 with a mature enough ship for a catch attempt by mid-2027 is… Booster catches took several attempts to succeed reliably, so a first-ever ship catch attempt succeeding cleanly on a specific flight is a meaningful minority outcome.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — It hinges on SpaceX attempting an upper-stage tower catch by Flight 14, not merely proving controlled return. SpaceX must clear upper-stage reentry, relight, precision guidance, and Boca Chica tower readiness before the 14th test. No Starship upper stage had been tower-caught by September 2026; first-attempt catches after new return modes have low base rates. A demonstrated controlled upper-stage landing or a public Flight 14 catch plan would materially raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 28% — Whether SpaceX attempts a Ship catch on IFT-14 (not splashdown) and the chopsticks hold it. By mid-2026 they have caught Super Heavy repeatedly but still splash Ship; first Ship catch is usually after extra ocean tests. IFT-14 will fly well before Jul 2027 given ~6-week cadence, yet they may slot the catch on 12-13 or 15+. Booster first-catch success was high; Ship reentry heat and mass make a first attempt ~50-60% if they even try it then.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 20% — Upper-stage tower catch by Flight Test 14 hinges on SpaceX completing a booster-style catch campaign for Ship within roughly nine months. SpaceX had caught Super Heavy boosters 3 times by mid-2026 but had never attempted a Ship catch; the first Ship catch demo is not expected before flights 15-17. Flight 12/13 cadence in 2026 ran roughly every 2-3 months, so Flight 14 might not fly until late 2026 or 2027 even if the catch hardware is ready. FAA and SpaceX must clear each flight's launch license and anomaly reviews; a single mishap or pad damage could easily slip Flight 14 past the July 2027 deadline.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 72% — SpaceX caught Ship on Flight 13; Flight 14 is likely a repeat attempt with minor refinements. Flight 13 (early 2026) achieved the first successful upper-stage catch, proving the system works operationally, not just in simulation. SpaceX's cadence suggests Flight 14 occurs well before mid-2027, and they will almost certainly attempt another catch given the Flight 13 success. Main risk is a mission profile change (e.g., payload test requiring different reentry) or a booster anomaly forcing abort before catch attempt.

The Orbital Launch Tower chopsticks successfully catch the Starship upper stage during Flight Test 14.

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