The Roman Space Telescope reaches its final operational orbit by December 2026.
Launched on August 30, the telescope is on a three-month, million-mile transit. Success is defined by official confirmation that it has reached its target halo orbit and begun operations.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel treats this as close to settled: the median is 92%.
They broadly agree, 5 points between Qwen at 93% and Gemini at 88%.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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QwenAlibaba
Launch Aug 30 + ~3-month transit puts arrival ~late Nov; margin of ~6 weeks before deadline.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202693% -
GPTOpenAI
A completed launch and nominal three-month transfer make timely halo-orbit insertion highly likely.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202692% -
GrokxAI
Successful Aug 30 launch; 3-month L2 transit like JWST, insertion failures rare for NASA flagships.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202692% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Launched Aug 30; 3-month transit means orbit insertion ~late Nov, well before Dec 13.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202692% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Transit is ~3 months from Aug 30, well within window; SL2 halo insertions historically succeed.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202690% -
GeminiGoogle
Launched successfully; 3-month L2 transit and orbit insertion typically face very low failure rates.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202688%
6 of 6 models answered · 5 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.