The Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial maritime traffic.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 77% by 1 Feb 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

77% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-02-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 88% — Global economic pressure and naval deterrence make complete closure of Hormuz unsustainable beyond a few weeks. Iran depends on Gulf maritime routes for its own oil revenue and food imports, incentivizing de-escalation once leverage is gained. A nearly three-month window until February 2027 provides ample time for Oman or Qatar-brokered maritime transit protocols. Unrestricted kinetic blockades facing US and coalition naval intervention historically collapse into regulated convoy traffic quickly.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 96% — The Strait was never actually closed; traffic continues under elevated risk, and full normalization is highly likely well before Feb 2027. No formal closure has occurred historically despite repeated Iranian threats, and commercial shipping has continued even during heightened tensions. Iran lacks strategic incentive to fully close the strait long-term since it depends on the same route for its own oil exports. Long resolution window (15 months) gives ample time for de-escalation or diplomatic resolution even if temporary disruptions occur.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 82% — It turns on whether Iran and regional adversaries can sustain a de-escalation deal rather than merely pause attacks. Iran, Gulf states and likely the US must provide credible passage guarantees before insurers and shipowners resume transits. Past Hormuz crises have disrupted or threatened shipping but rarely produced a durable full closure; a 90-day window favors reopening. A direct US-Iran war, mining campaign, or attacks on tankers after talks begin would sharply reduce the chance of commercial return.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 72% — Iran-led de-escalation plus US/allied escorts restoring traffic within ~90 days. Iran, US Fifth Fleet and Gulf states must agree a ceasefire or escort regime by late January; oil-price and insurance collapse forces that faster than a full war. Hormuz has never stayed fully closed more than days despite decades of threats; current talks already underway sit well above that base rate. A sudden US-Iran kinetic spiral or mining campaign that lasts past mid-January would drop the odds sharply.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 18% — Whether Iran's IRGC Navy stops attacks and accepts US-led escort terms before February 2027. Iran's IRGC Navy controls the Strait; any reopening requires Tehran to halt attacks and accept US-led escort terms. The 1980s Tanker War precedent shows closure lasting months, not weeks, once mines and anti-ship missiles are deployed. US Fifth Fleet escorts and CENTCOM deconfliction would need to clear first, likely after a ceasefire or UN-brokered deal.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 62% — Iran's own oil export dependency makes prolonged closure self-destructive; the question is whether security conditions permit it within 3 months. Iran exports ~1.5 mb/d through Hormuz itself, so the economic self-harm of closure creates a strong unilateral incentive to reopen once a face-saving diplomatic… Three months is enough for a negotiated reopening if contacts are already at the stage of discussing terms, but insufficient if active hostilities or mine-clearance… A sudden escalation (e.g., strike on Iranian nuclear facilities) would freeze negotiations; conversely, a ceasefire announcement in December would push this above 80.

The Strait of Hormuz reopens to commercial maritime traffic.

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