The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.82% on September 16, 2026.
The 10-year Treasury yield recently reached a three-year high of 4.82% before easing to 4.75%. Resolution is based on the official market close following the September 16 FOMC decision.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 25%.
They broadly agree, 19 points between GPT at 41% and Claude at 22%.
It happened. Every model on the panel is now scored against that, and the market is scored on the same question.
It happened.
Multiple financial sources (CNBC, Morningstar/Dow Jones, Federal Reserve H.15) report the 10-year Treasury yield closed around 5.00-5.02% on September 16, 2026, which is above the 4.82% threshold stated.
Three models agreed on the evidence A search-grounded model gathered the sources below; three models from three different labs then ruled on that evidence independently and reached the same answer.
- Claudehappeneddirect evidence
- GPThappeneddirect evidence
- Geminihappeneddirect evidence
- 10-year Treasury yield climbs back to 5% after Fed hikes rates
- 10-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.003% — Data Talk
- Dgs10
- 2-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 4.725% — Data Talk
- 10-year Treasury yield 4.97% on Sept. 16, 2026, per TradingEconomics
- 30-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 5.346% — Data Talk | Morningstar
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
A 4.82% close is only 7 bp above recent levels, but FOMC easing expectations cap upside.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202641% -
QwenAlibaba
FOMC likely cuts or holds; yields at 4.75% need a hawkish surprise to push above 4.82% in one session.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202631% -
GeminiGoogle
Yields are currently at 4.75%; a 7+ bps rise into an FOMC rate-decision day is historically below even odds.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202628% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Yield recently hit 4.82% high then eased to 4.75%; needs a fresh multi-year peak on a specific date
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
GrokxAI
Needs ~7bp yield rise in 2 days; FOMC surprises of that size are uncommon from 4.75%.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Yield already touched 4.82%; FOMC day volatility could push it back, but close above is a coin-flip-ish tail.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202622%
6 of 6 models answered · 19 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.