The U.S. PCE price index increases month-over-month in the report released on September 30, 2026.
PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. The BEA publishes the monthly PCE price index report on September 30, 2026.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel leans yes: the median is 82%.
They broadly agree, 20 points between DeepSeek at 92% and Qwen at 72%.
Nothing is settled until 14 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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DeepSeekDeepSeek
Monthly PCE rose in ~85-90% of months historically; no deflation signal, so a negative print is rare.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202692% -
ClaudeAnthropic
MoM PCE has risen in nearly all months historically; outright declines are rare
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202688% -
GeminiGoogle
Headline MoM PCE is positive in over 80% of historical months due to steady core services inflation.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
GrokxAI
MoM PCE >0 in ~80%+ of months; negatives rare absent sharp energy drops.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202682% -
GPTOpenAI
Monthly headline PCE has risen far more often than fallen; a one-month decline is relatively uncommon.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202676% -
QwenAlibaba
PCE MoM is positive in ~70-75% of months; no strong deflation signal currently.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202672%
6 of 6 models answered · 20 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.