The U.S. Supreme Court allows local governments' climate lawsuits against oil and gas companies to proceed.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 60% by 11 Oct 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

60% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-10-11.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 42% — The Court's conservative majority is skeptical of state-law tort suits regulating global emissions via the Clean Air Act. SCOTUS has repeatedly denied cert on removal questions, but substantive federal preemption under AEP v. Connecticut is ripe for review. Four justices are likely to grant cert in Sunoco v. Honolulu or a companion case, and at least five lean toward federal preemption. If the Court denies cert to wait for final judgment rather than taking interlocutory review, this resolves positively by default.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 32% — Hinges on whether SCOTUS grants cert and rules on preemption/political question grounds favoring oil companies. SCOTUS has repeatedly denied cert in similar climate liability cases (Boulder, Honolulu, NYC), letting lower rulings favoring plaintiffs stand. The current conservative majority and Solicitor General's amicus support for industry suggest sympathy toward federal preemption arguments against local suits. If the Court takes up a case and issues a merits ruling, precedent suggests skepticism toward state-law tort claims over interstate/global emissions.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 68% — The key hinge is whether the Court sees federal energy law as displacing state-law climate-liability claims. The justices must grant review and reverse a state-court path, or deny review/leave remand rulings intact, by October 2027. After BP v. Baltimore (2021), lower courts have mostly returned these cases to state courts; outright merits review remains uncommon. A broad federal-preemption ruling in a pending circuit split would cut this sharply, while repeated cert denials would raise it.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 62% — whether SCOTUS denies cert or affirms state-court venue for the climate suits Energy firms keep seeking cert after 2nd/9th/10th Cir. kept cases in state court; Court has denied similar petitions 2021-25. Grant rate ~1%, and even if granted, Roberts Court has not yet federalized these claims. A Gorsuch/Alito majority opinion preempting under Clean Air Act would flip it.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 58% — This turns on whether the Court declines review and lets the procedural rulings stand, or intervenes to stop the cases. The Court already asked the Solicitor General for views in these cases, which usually signals a grant, a hold, or a slow denial rather than a quick green light. A denial of certiorari would let the Tenth Circuit and similar rulings stand and effectively permit the cases to proceed, which is the most likely path. The one development that would most change my mind is an explicit opinion or order taking the cases and reversing on preemption grounds, which would block them.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 72% — The Court has repeatedly let these cases proceed on procedural grounds; the question is whether it finally reaches the merits. The Court has denied cert or remanded on procedural grounds in every climate-lawsuit challenge since 2021 (Baltimore, Chevron v. Oakland), never blocking the suits… Energy companies keep filing cert petitions on federal common law preemption and removal grounds, but the Court has shown no appetite to issue a sweeping ruling that… A development that would lower this: the Court granting cert on a case presenting a clean preemption question and signaling willingness to rule broadly against the…

The U.S. Supreme Court allows local governments' climate lawsuits against oil and gas companies to proceed.

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