The UK government approves the development of new oil and gas fields in Scotland.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 30% by 13 Oct 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

30% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-10-13.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 27% — Labour's pledge to ban new exploration licenses severely constrains approvals, leaving only existing discoveries to clear court hurdles. DESNZ and the NSTA have paused approvals following the Finch supreme court ruling demanding Scope 3 emissions assessments. Labour's manifesto explicitly halted new licensing rounds, though grandfathered fields like Rosebank face ongoing legal challenges. A major gas price spike or North Sea job shock forcing an emergency energy-security policy reversal would push this above 50%.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 32% — Hinges on whether Labour's North Sea policy shifts amid energy security and jobs pressure before late 2027. Labour has pledged no new exploration licences but existing fields like Rosebank/Jackdaw face court and policy review outcomes by 2026-27. Political pressure from Scottish jobs, energy security post-Ukraine, and Reform/Tory attacks could push partial reversals or targeted approvals. Labour's manifesto commitment and climate legal exposure make a clear 'new fields approved' outcome unlikely but not impossible given energy price shocks.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — It turns chiefly on whether ministers treat new North Sea licences as compatible with their energy-security and climate tests. The UK government or regulator must issue a licence or development consent before 13 October 2027; pending offshore decisions create a short path. UK governments have repeatedly backed North Sea extraction, but court rulings and tighter climate policy have raised the approval bar. A binding post-election ban on new licensing, or a successful climate challenge, would materially cut the chance.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 28% — Labour re-approving Rosebank/Jackdaw after court-ordered Scope-3 EIAs. Miliband’s DESNZ must issue fresh consents by mid-2027; 2023 approvals were quashed for omitting downstream emissions. North-Sea development consents ran >80% pre-2024, but Labour’s no-new-licences pledge and 2030 clean-power target put this well below that rate. A snap election or winter gas-price spike would most raise the odds.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 78% — This turns on whether Rosebank-style fields clear the NSTA/Secretary of State approval chain before the 2027 deadline. The UK already approved Rosebank in September 2023, showing the licensing chain can clear Scottish fields despite climate litigation. The NSTA and Secretary of State must sign off; the 2026-27 licensing round and pending applications give a concrete pipeline before October 2027. Base rate for approvals under this government is high, but a Labour manifesto pledge to end new licences would be the key break point.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 14% — Labour's explicit no-new-licensing stance would need a major energy crisis or internal revolt to reverse within 12 months. Miliband and Starmer have repeatedly committed to no new fossil fuel licenses since July 2024; reversing this would be a high-profile U-turn with significant political… Base rate of UK governments approving North Sea developments is high historically, but this government is the first to explicitly block them on climate grounds, placing… A sustained spike in gas prices or a major supply disruption (e.g., further Russian escalation) is the most plausible trigger that would force approval on…

The UK government approves the development of new oil and gas fields in Scotland.

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