The UK government approves the North Sea Jackdaw gas project in September 2026.
Reports suggested UK ministers were poised to approve the Jackdaw offshore gas project in mid-September 2026, though political timing remains contested.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 53%.
They do not agree: Qwen puts it at 72% and Grok at 32%, 40 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 14 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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QwenAlibaba
Reports say ministers poised to approve; UK energy security pressure high, but political timing contested.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Reports say ministers poised to approve; timing contested but window is short and project already regulator-cleared.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202662% -
GPTOpenAI
Reports of imminent ministerial approval make it more likely than not, but timing could slip.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202661% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Approval reportedly imminent, but UK North Sea decisions often slip due to political/legal contestation.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202645% -
GeminiGoogle
Jackdaw was approved in 2022; if re-evaluating, environmental lawsuits and policy shifts often cause delays.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202642% -
GrokxAI
Poised mid-Sep reports vs contested politics make slip past month-end likely
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202632%
6 of 6 models answered · 40 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.