The United Kingdom enacts an import ban on goods produced in Israeli West Bank settlements.
Britain announced plans to ban settlement imports and sanction affiliated firms. Resolves true if legislation or executive regulations enforcing the ban take legal effect.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel is barely on the yes side: the median is 60%.
They do not agree: Grok puts it at 72% and Claude at 32%, 40 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Mar 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GrokxAI
Govt announcement + majority + exec regs possible; 6mo window, but US/Israel pressure may delay or dilute.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202672% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
UK announced intent already; Labour govt moving, but legal/executive process by Mar 2027 is plausible not guaranteed.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202668% -
QwenAlibaba
UK gov announced intent; legislative process takes time but ~6 months is plausible for secondary legislation.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202662% -
GPTOpenAI
Public commitment raises odds, but legal rollout may be delayed or softened by diplomatic and trade constraints.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202657% -
GeminiGoogle
UK Labour government signaled intent, but WTO hurdles and political pushback make formal enactment slow.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202642% -
ClaudeAnthropic
UK announced intent but implementation timelines for such bans historically slip and face legal/political friction
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202632%
6 of 6 models answered · 40 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.