The United States and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement on Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic by November 30, 2026.
Tensions in the Persian Gulf have disrupted crucial global oil transit lanes. Resolves if an official bilateral agreement or framework regulating Strait traffic is announced by November 30.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 3%.
They broadly agree, 26 points between GPT at 27% and Gemini at 1%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 14%, so the models are 11 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -11 pts
- Moved this week
- -13 pts
- Volume
- $796K
The models are slightly less confident than traders risking real money: 3% against 14%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
It turns on whether acute shipping disruption forces Tehran and Washington into a narrow, publicly accepted deconfliction deal within 20 days.
- Both governments must accept and announce the same instrument by November 30; indirect talks via Oman or Qatar still need explicit buy-in.
- U.S.-Iran direct accords on maritime access are rare, and sanctions, nuclear disputes, and militia issues make a formal bilateral text difficult.
- I would raise this sharply if Oman or Qatar publicly confirms a near-term framework with specific transit guarantees or inspection terms.
27% -
GrokxAI
Twenty days left with no public talks makes a Hormuz traffic pact vanishingly unlikely.
- US and Iran must both publicly accept the same instrument by 30 Nov; no talks or envoys are reported.
- JCPOA-scale deals take years of shuttle diplomacy; Hormuz has never produced a bilateral traffic treaty.
- Only a sudden leak of completed back-channel text would move the odds; none exists.
4% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
No US-Iran negotiating track on Hormuz exists with 20 days left, and no mechanism to produce one that fast.
- US-Iran talks on Hormuz have no announced round scheduled; the last indirect Oman-mediated talks stalled in 2025 over sanctions sequencing.
- Any deal needs IRGC naval stand-down and Treasury sanctions waivers, which take months of interagency review, not three weeks.
- Base rate for US-Iran comprehensive agreements in a 20-day window is near zero; the 2015 JCPOA took 20 months of negotiation.
3% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Only 20 days remain, no public US-Iran talks on Hormuz traffic are reported, and such deals require lengthy negotiation.
- US-Iran have no formal diplomatic relations and any agreement needs extensive negotiation, verification, and domestic political clearance on both sides.
- With resolution window closing December 1 and no indication of active Hormuz-specific talks reported, there is essentially no pipeline for a deal to emerge in time.
- Historically, US-Iran agreements (e.g., JCPOA) took years to negotiate; narrow window and lack of visible groundwork make a sudden announcement highly unlikely.
2% -
QwenAlibaba
20 days is far too short for a first-ever bilateral US-Iran maritime accord given no diplomatic relations since 1980.
- The US and Iran have had no formal diplomatic channel since 1980; no bilateral maritime agreement has ever been reached, making the base rate effectively zero.
- Even if back-channel talks existed, Iran's Supreme Leader must personally approve any concession on Hormuz leverage, and 20 days cannot clear that bureaucracy.
- A shift would require evidence of advanced secret negotiations already in final-draft stage, which would likely leak given the number of officials involved.
2% -
GeminiGoogle
Resolving in under three weeks leaves virtually zero time for a breakthrough bilateral US-Iran maritime accord.
- Washington and Tehran lack formal ties and require months of Omani or Qatari mediation even for minor prisoner swaps.
- Iran views controlling Hormuz transit as core asymmetric leverage against US sanctions, which it will not concede quickly.
- A formal bilateral maritime treaty between these adversaries has never occurred since 1979, making a 20-day sprint impossible.
1%
6 of 6 models answered · 26 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of
Question sourced from Polymarket on 10 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.