The United States and Iran announce a formal ceasefire.
Direct strikes between U.S. forces and Iran have resumed after a brief lull. A formal ceasefire agreement or verified halt announced by both governments would satisfy this condition.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 18%.
They do not agree: GPT puts it at 57% and DeepSeek at 7%, 50 points apart. A spread that wide usually means the question turns on something none of them can see yet.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Both sides have strong incentives to cap escalation, but mutual public terms face severe trust and politics.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202657% -
QwenAlibaba
Both sides have historically preferred escalation dominance over formal truces; domestic politics in both countries disfavor concession.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202627% -
GrokxAI
Limited US-Iran clashes typically de-escalate via quiet backchannels, not dual public ceasefire announcements.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202622% -
GeminiGoogle
Neither side has formal diplomatic ties or historically engages in formal bilateral ceasefires.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202614% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Formal bilateral ceasefires between US-Iran are historically rare despite periodic de-escalation
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202612% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
No US-Iran formal ceasefire since 1979; active strikes and no shared venue make a verified halt by Dec 2026 very unlikely.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 20267%
6 of 6 models answered · 50 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.