The United States commences a military invasion of Iran before 2027.
Tensions between Washington and Tehran remain high. This resolves if the US launches a military offensive intended to take control over Iranian territory before 2027.
Across 5 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 3%.
They broadly agree, 6 points between GPT at 7% and Gemini at 1%.
Money disagrees. The market sits at 19%, so the models are 16 points less confident than people with cash on the outcome.
Nothing is settled until 1 Jan 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
- AI edge
- -16 pts
- Moved this week
- +3 pts
- Since we asked
- +2 pts
- Volume
- $75.5M
The models are clearly less confident than traders risking real money: 3% against 19%.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
A territorial-control invasion is far costlier than strikes; only ~3.5 months remain.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 20267% -
GrokxAI
No visible buildup; occupying Iran needs years of prep, not 3 months of crisis response.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 20263% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
US has struck Iran but never seized territory; invasion/occupation needs months of buildup absent now.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 20263% -
ClaudeAnthropic
US strategy favors airstrikes/sanctions, not ground invasion; no political appetite for occupation.â
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20262% -
GeminiGoogle
Massive logistical mobilization required for ground invasion cannot occur undetected in 3.5 months.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20261% -
QwenAlibabano answer this run qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 2026–
5 of 6 models answered · 6 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Question sourced from Polymarket on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.