The United States halts its $4 billion annual aid to Israel by the end of 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 7% by 6 Feb 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

7% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-02-06.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 4% — Halting statutory military aid requires Congress to dismantle the 10-year MOU, which holds veto-proof bipartisan support. The 2016 MOU commits $3.8B annually through FY2028 via appropriations that Congress reliably funds over executive objections. With under two months until 2027, passing legislation or an impoundment mechanism to freeze aid faces insurmountable legislative delays. A formal executive impoundment challenge would be immediately tied up in federal court rather than successfully implemented.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 6% — Needs actual congressional/executive action to cut the $4B MOU-backed aid, not just a Trump remark. Israel aid flows via a 10-year MOU through FY2028 with strong bipartisan congressional backing, making a unilateral halt legally and politically hard. Trump has made similar offhand statements before without follow-through on formal policy change, so base rate for actual implementation is low. Only a clear executive order or legislative action explicitly halting aid before Dec 2026 would flip this; no such process is currently underway.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 18% — A complete cutoff needs Trump to overcome Congress’s entrenched, bipartisan appropriations support for Israel. Congress must omit or bar the aid in FY2027 appropriations, and the fiscal year began on October 1, 2026. U.S. security aid has survived repeated wars and policy disputes; annual FMF funding is usually authorized well ahead of disbursement. A signed FY2027 bill explicitly zeroing Israel aid, rather than delayed funds or conditions, would sharply raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 12% — Whether appropriated FMF is actually stopped, not just announced, before 31 Dec. Congress must pass or Trump must withhold FY26/27 funds; the purse is theirs and Israel aid is in the MOU and annual bills. No precedent for a full halt in <2 months; even Trump-era pauses were partial and reversed. A signed CR or NDAA omitting the $3.8 B line by mid-December would flip this; nothing else would.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 5% — Trump's verbal threat lacks any implementing action, and the 2016 MOU legally binds aid through 2028. Trump's remark was rhetorical; the 10-year MOU signed in 2016 runs through 2028, so halting it requires Congress to rescind or reprogram funds. Congressional pro-Israel majorities and AIPAC would block any rescission; no appropriations bill has moved to cut this aid. The one development that would change my mind is a formal State Department or OMB notice terminating FMF disbursements before 2027.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 7% — Congress controls the purse; no mechanism exists for unilateral presidential impoundment of appropriated Israel aid. The 2016 MOU commits $3.8B/year through FY2028; halting it requires new legislation or a rescission approved by both chambers. Even during Trump's first term, Israel aid was maintained or increased; no Congress has ever voted to zero out Israel FMF. A development that would change this: a budget reconciliation bill explicitly rescinding Israel FMF passing both houses before January 2027.

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