The US and Iran agree to a formal bilateral ceasefire.
Direct US-Iran strikes have resumed following a month-long lull. Resolution requires an officially announced ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the US and Iran within one month.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 10%.
They broadly agree, 14 points between GPT at 18% and Gemini at 4%.
Nothing is settled until 14 Oct 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Formal direct US-Iran ceasefires are rare; escalation usually deconflicts indirectly or pauses unilaterally.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
GrokxAI
No diplomatic ties; past US-Iran clashes de-escalate tacitly via third parties, not formal bilateral pacts.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
QwenAlibaba
Active strikes + deep distrust make formal ceasefire in 30 days very unlikely; no credible negotiation channel visible.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202612% -
ClaudeAnthropic
No formal US-Iran ceasefire framework exists; escalation trend and lack of direct talks make this unlikely within a month.
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 20268% -
GeminiGoogle
A formal bilateral ceasefire requires diplomatic recognition and treaties rare even after overt war.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 20264% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Active direct strikes just resumed; formal bilateral ceasefire in 30 days is near-impossible diplomatically.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 20264%
6 of 6 models answered · 14 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.