The US House of Representatives impeaches Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth by December 31, 2026.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 3% by 1 Jan 2027. The market says 72%. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

3% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-01-01.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 2% — A Republican-controlled House will not pass articles of impeachment against a Trump cabinet member during the 2026 lame-duck session. Even if Democrats won the 2026 midterms, the newly elected Congress does not take office until January 3, 2027. House Republicans hold the majority through December 31, 2026, making an impeachment vote against Hegseth nearly impossible to floor. Cabinet impeachments are exceptionally rare base-rate events, and only a massive bipartisan criminal fallout could flip 218 votes.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 3% — Requires Republican-controlled House to pass impeachment articles, which is extremely unlikely absent a major new scandal. House is GOP-majority through 2026, and leadership has shown no appetite to impeach Hegseth despite controversies. Cabinet impeachments are historically rare; no sitting Defense Secretary has ever been impeached by the House. Only a dramatic new revelation plus a shift in GOP leadership stance could change this, unlikely in the remaining window to Dec 31, 2026.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 3% — A House impeachment needs a majority willing to break with the governing coalition in just seven weeks. The House must pass articles by December 31, and Hegseth cannot first leave office under the market rules. Cabinet-secretary impeachments are exceptionally rare; modern House majorities usually use oversight, funding, or resignation pressure instead. Odds would jump on a documented criminal or national-security scandal plus Republican leaders publicly backing impeachment.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 4% — Whether the sitting 2024 House already has drafted articles ready for a floor vote in the next 52 days. Cabinet impeachments are vanishingly rare (only Belknap 1876 succeeded); none are queued now. The 2024 House remains in session until Jan 3 2027, so a possible new majority cannot act. Only an explosive, documented scandal forcing an emergency vote would move the needle.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 3% — Only a House majority vote on articles before year-end counts, and no committee has reported any. House has ~7 weeks left in session; impeachment needs Judiciary Committee action first, and no Hegseth articles have been introduced or marked up. Base rate for cabinet impeachment is zero in US history; the two precedents (Johnson 1868, Mayorkas 2024) took months of hearings and a floor vote. Even a discharge petition would need 218 signatures and a rule vote, which GOP leadership has shown no appetite to schedule.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 2% — Cabinet impeachment has happened once in 250 years (Belknap, 1876); seven weeks is too short to overcome that base rate. Only Belknap (1876) was ever impeached as a cabinet officer, and he resigned minutes before the vote—making even that case a near-miss for this resolution criterion. The House would need a simple majority; with Republicans likely still holding the chamber in late 2026, bipartisan consensus against Hegseth would be required, which has… If scandal escalates, the far more likely path is resignation or firing—which resolves this market 'No' per the stated criteria—rather than formal articles.

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