The US Supreme Court restricts birthright citizenship under the Fourteenth Amendment before December 2028.
Proposals to reinterpret the Citizenship Clause regarding children of unauthorized immigrants face constitutional challenge. Resolves positive if the Court rules such children are not automatically citizens at birth.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 12%.
They broadly agree, 10 points between GPT at 18% and Gemini at 8%.
Nothing is settled until 8 Nov 2029, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
A durable restriction needs five Justices to adopt a sharp break from Wong Kim Ark and modern citizenship practice.
- The Court would need a live merits case after executive action or legislation, likely reaching it by the 2027–28 Terms.
- United States v. Wong Kim Ark (1898) strongly supports birthright citizenship; reversals of such embedded precedent are uncommon.
- Odds rise sharply if a Trump administration order produces a clean circuit split and the Court grants expedited review.
18% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Hinges on whether SCOTUS grants cert on Trump's EO 14160 litigation and actually overturns Wong Kim Ark precedent.
- Multiple circuit courts have already blocked the EO citing 1898 Wong Kim Ark precedent, creating strong lower-court headwinds against reversal.
- SCOTUS has shown reluctance to take the merits case quickly, and even a conservative majority has given no signal it will jettison 120+ years of settled doctrine.
- A grant of cert plus a ruling fully stripping birthright citizenship for unauthorized immigrants' children before Nov 2028 would be a historic reversal, so base rate…
12% -
GrokxAI
SCOTUS must grant cert on a live challenge and hold the Citizenship Clause excludes children of unauthorized immigrants.
- An EO or statute would be enjoined in district court then the Ninth or DC Circuit; the Court would need to grant cert by mid-2027 to decide by December 2028.
- Wong Kim Ark (1898) and 125 years of practice set a near-zero base rate for reversing birthright citizenship; originalist arguments exist but have never commanded five…
- A cert grant in OT 2027 would be the clearest signal the Court intends to restrict the clause.
12% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This turns on whether the Court abandons 128 years of Wong Kim Ark precedent, which it has shown no appetite for.
- Trump's January 2025 executive order was blocked by district courts; the Court has so far declined to bless the reinterpretation on the merits.
- Overruling Wong Kim Ark (1898) requires five justices to discard a century-old settled reading; the current Court has been reluctant to do so in analogous cases.
- Base rate for the Court reversing a foundational, long-settled constitutional precedent within a two-year window is very low, and no cert grant on the citizenship…
12% -
QwenAlibaba
Requires 5 justices to overturn Wong Kim Ark's 127-year reading of 'subject to the jurisdiction thereof'—a steep ask even for this Court.
- Wong Kim Ark (1898) is among the most entrenched precedents; even conservative originalists like McConnell and Barrett have signaled the text and history support…
- The case will likely reach SCOTUS by 2026-27 given expedited review of the Trump EO stays, so timing isn't the binding constraint—getting five votes is.
- A ruling narrowing 'jurisdiction' to exclude unauthorized immigrants' children would upend the status of millions and lacks a workable limiting principle, making it a…
9% -
GeminiGoogle
Revisiting Wong Kim Ark requires an executive order or statute surviving circuit injunctions to reach SCOTUS before late 2028.
- Even if challenged quickly, circuit courts will unanimously enjoin restrictions, requiring at least two years to reach SCOTUS.
- Conservative originalists like Gorsuch and Kavanaugh have shown reluctance to overturn century-old landmark text like Wong Kim Ark.
- If an executive order ends birthright citizenship in early 2025, an expedited emergency cert grant could bring a ruling by 2028.
8%
6 of 6 models answered · 10 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 9 Nov 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.