The White House reinstates the game 'Build the Wall' to Arcade.gov by December 31, 2026.
The administration abruptly pulled the Tetris-style game from Arcade.gov in September 2026 without a public explanation.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel has all but ruled it out: the median is 12%.
They broadly agree, 13 points between GPT at 18% and DeepSeek at 5%.
Nothing is settled until 20 Mar 2027, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
-
GPTOpenAI
Reinstatement depends on a deliberate White House digital-content decision after an unexplained removal.
- The White House web team or its supervising communications office would need to approve restoration before December 31, 2026.
- Government sites rarely reverse a recent takedown within a quarter absent public pressure, legal error, or a change in leadership.
- Evidence the removal was temporary—such as an archived notice or official pledge to restore it—would sharply raise the odds.
18% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Turns on whether the removal was a permanent policy reversal or a temporary tech/PR fix.
- No public explanation for removal suggests deliberate distancing rather than a glitch to be quickly fixed.
- Government sites rarely reinstate pulled politically-charged content once removed, base rate for reversal is low.
- A strong political incentive (base rally, anniversary event) could prompt reinstatement, but no signal of that yet.
12% -
GrokxAI
WH/GSA must reverse the unexplained Sept pull and republish within ~100 days.
- No known lawsuit, FOIA clock or public demand forces a decision by 31 Dec.
- Yanked political content on .gov sites is almost never restored absent court order.
- A leaked memo or injunction would shift odds; none exists now.
12% -
QwenAlibaba
Depends on whether the removal was a deliberate policy decision or a bureaucratic error that someone quietly reverses.
- Arcade.gov is a minor GSA-run site; games are added and removed without fanfare, and there's no precedent for public pressure restoring a removed game.
- The administration pulled it without explanation, suggesting either a deliberate decision (unlikely to reverse) or an internal compliance/legal concern that won't…
- A reversal would require a specific staffer or political actor to champion it; no such signal exists yet, and the political cost of re-adding a game named 'Build the…
12% -
GeminiGoogle
White House communications rarely reverse quiet takedowns of controversial media without direct executive orders or court mandates.
- Government web managers almost never restore scrubbed PR liabilities once removed, choosing to let the news cycle move on.
- Reinstating requires formal sign-off from White House digital strategy or OMB, which invites renewed bipartisan backlash.
- A successful First Amendment lawsuit or explicit public intervention from the President before Q4 2026 would flip this calculus.
8% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
This turns on whether the White House reverses a quiet, unexplained removal of a novelty game within three months.
- No public explanation was given for the September 2026 removal, so there is no stated grievance or deadline forcing a reinstatement.
- Arcade.gov is a minor GSA-run site; reinstating a single game would require White House or GSA political appointees to prioritize it over larger agenda items.
- Abrupt removals of web content rarely get reversed within the same administration absent a public outcry, and no such outcry is evident here.
5%
6 of 6 models answered · 13 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 21 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.