Yemeni government or coalition forces recapture strategic coastal positions held by Houthi forces along the Red Sea.
Houthi forces recently seized positions along a major shipping corridor. Resolves true if verified reports confirm anti-Houthi forces have retaken control of the areas.
Across 6 frontier models answering independently, the panel thinks this is unlikely: the median is 18%.
They broadly agree, 17 points between GPT at 31% and Gemini at 14%.
Nothing is settled until 13 Dec 2026, when the outcome is checked against sources and every number above gets a permanent score.
What each one said
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GPTOpenAI
Anti-Houthi forces lack recent offensive momentum; retaking fortified coast needs sustained coalition backing.
openai/gpt-5.6-terra · asked 14 Sept 202631% -
QwenAlibaba
Houthis entrenched; coalition fragmented, no major offensive capacity shown since 2022 truce framework.
qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 · asked 14 Sept 202627% -
GrokxAI
Yemen stalemate; no coalition appetite for Hodeidah-scale offensive in ~3 months.
x-ai/grok-4.6 · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
DeepSeekDeepSeek
Anti-Houthi forces lack capacity for major coastal offensive; front lines static for years despite Red Sea strikes.
deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash · asked 14 Sept 202618% -
ClaudeAnthropic
Frontlines largely static since 2022 truce; no active coalition offensive momentum reported
anthropic/claude-sonnet-5 · asked 14 Sept 202615% -
GeminiGoogle
Three-month window is too narrow for fragmented coalition forces to execute a major Red Sea counteroffensive.
google/gemini-3.8-flash · asked 14 Sept 202614%
6 of 6 models answered · 17 points between the highest and lowest. None was shown the market price.
Question sourced from a news sweep on 14 Sept 2026. Forecast by google/gemini-3.8-flash, anthropic/claude-sonnet-5, openai/gpt-5.6-terra, x-ai/grok-4.6, deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash, qwen/qwen3.8-max-0902 via OpenRouter.