A legal challenge is filed against the approval of New South Wales's largest coal project.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 82% by 31 Mar 2027. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

82% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2027-03-31.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 88% — Environmental litigation groups routinely challenge major fossil fuel approvals in NSW, making an appeal near-certain. Bodies like the Environmental Defenders Office have a near-100% filing rate against landmark NSW coal approvals. NSW Land and Environment Court or federal EPBC challenges typically launch within three months of formal sign-off. Only a sudden developer withdrawal or unchallengeable statutory exemption would prevent a challenge before March 2027.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 62% — Hinges on whether environmental/community groups file a Land and Environment Court challenge before the deadline. Major NSW coal approvals (e.g. Narrabri, Mount Pleasant extensions, Bulga) have consistently drawn legal challenges from groups like EDO, Lock the Gate, or Mullaley Gas… The long window to March 2027 gives ample time for standing to be established and a challenge lodged, and Australia's judicial review culture lowers the bar for filing. Main uncertainty is whether approval conditions are tight enough to deter litigation or whether groups instead pursue political/advocacy routes rather than court action.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 82% — The project’s scale and climate implications make litigation by NSW environmental groups highly likely within six months. NSW planning approvals can be challenged in the Land and Environment Court, and objectors need only lodge proceedings or an appeal by 31 March 2027. Major Australian coal approvals have routinely drawn NGO legal action; the largest NSW project presents an unusually visible target. A clear statement from leading groups that they will not litigate, or a withdrawn approval, would sharply lower the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 82% — Enviro NGOs must lodge in the Land and Environment Court before remaining appeal windows close. NSW major-coal approvals are challenged ~70% of the time; this being the largest lifts the rate. IPC/minister decision already issued so 28–90-day clocks are running; EDO/Lock the Gate routinely file. Only a surprise settlement or standing failure would stop it; federal EPBC overlay is the main wild-card delay.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 88% — Environmental groups have both standing and a track record of challenging NSW coal approvals within months. The NSW Independent Planning Commission approved the project, and objectors have 3 months under s 8.7 of the EP&A Act to file judicial review in the Land and Environment… EDO NSW and Lock the Gate have challenged every major NSW coal approval since Rocky Hill (2019), typically within weeks of consent. The only thing that would change my mind is if the approval is still pending or the project is withdrawn before gazettal.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 72% — NSW coal approvals face routine judicial review; the question is timing, not whether. NSW Land and Environment Court challenges to major mining approvals are common—e.g., Rocky Hill (2019), Ulan (2021), and multiple others filed within months of consent. Environmental NGOs (EDO, Lock the Gate) have standing and funding pipelines; a 'largest ever' project amplifies both motivation and donor interest. The 18-month window to March 2027 is generous; most NSW planning appeals are lodged within 3–6 months of approval, so a challenge would need to be filed relatively soon…

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