Commercial flying car or air taxi services become open to the general public before 2028.

Question

Six frontier AI models put this at 25% by 18 Sept 2029. Full reasoning from every model.

WillHappen.ai · Accepted Answer

25% — the median of 6 frontier models, resolving by 2029-09-18.

Answer

Gemini (Google): 74% — Dubai or Abu Dhabi will launch commercial eVTOL routes via Archer or Joby before FAA red tape clears in the US. EHang holds commercial CAAC certification in China, and Dubai has legally binding commitments for 2026 commercial operations. FAA and EASA type certifications face late-stage pilot delays, but UAE and Chinese regulatory paths bypass these bottlenecks. A fatal test crash in 2026 or 2027 by a market leader is the single event that would freeze commercial passenger approvals.

Answer

Claude (Anthropic): 22% — Hinges on FAA type certification for Joby/Archer eVTOLs and first revenue routes launching by 2027-2028. Joby and Archer target FAA type certification around 2026-2027, with commercial launch slipping repeatedly from earlier 2024-2025 targets. Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Saudi Arabia are pushing faster non-FAA regulatory paths, so a limited paid pilot service abroad by 2028 is plausible. Certification delays are the historical norm in aviation; any additional slip pushes past 2028, and infrastructure/vertiport buildout also lags.

Answer

GPT (OpenAI): 63% — FAA certification and a sustained, ticketed launch by Joby or Archer—not a demo flight—are the gating events. Joby and Archer must finish FAA type and production certification, then secure operators, vertiports and route approvals by 2027. Scheduled commercial launches often slip, but both firms have late-2025/2026 certification targets and FAA-backed eVTOL pathways. A completed FAA type certificate plus a 2027 paid service launch in Dubai or a U.S. city would materially raise the odds.

Answer

Grok (xAI): 28% — Joby/Archer completing FAA type+ops cert and launching paid routes in one city by end-2027. Joby/Archer still need remaining type-cert stages plus Part 135 ops approval; those typically take 18-30 months after 2024 progress. Novel-aircraft programs (787, 737MAX, eVTOL prototypes) have a high base-rate of 1-3 year slips past first-target dates. A 2026 revenue flight in Dubai or LA would raise odds sharply; continued battery/noise/ATC issues would kill them.

Answer

DeepSeek (DeepSeek): 22% — Whether Joby or Archer clears FAA Part 135 certification and launches paid city routes before 2028. Joby and Archer both target FAA type certification by 2025-2026, but neither has yet flown paying passengers on scheduled city routes as of late 2026. Base rate for novel aircraft certification slipping past announced dates is high; eVTOL has already slipped roughly 2-3 years from 2020-era promises. First commercial launches (Dubai, NYC) are likely single-route, limited-seat operations, which could still count as 'regular fare-paying' if regulators allow.

Answer

Qwen (Alibaba): 17% — FAA Part 135 certification timelines for Joby/Archer are the binding constraint, not aircraft readiness. Joby's FAA Type Inspection Authorization came in 2024; full type certification plus Part 135 operating certificate historically takes 4-6 years from TIA, putting… Archer is further behind Joby in certification; neither has yet completed full FAA type certification as of mid-2026, and no U.S. city has approved vertiport… A wildcard like a foreign-market launch (UAE, Saudi) with looser regulatory paths could technically count, but the statement specifies 'major city' and 'general public,'…

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